Olympic was only supposed to occupy the southern 1/3 of Kyushu and turn it into a huge airfield.
Coronet in 46' would have been the assault on Tokyo.
The Soviets were the wild card. Their invasions on Manchuria and Sakhalin were wildly successful.
Which is why the Left was so against the bombings, it wasn’t out of love for Japan, it was because it stopped their hero, Uncle Joe, from getting control of Japan.