Posted on 08/21/2018 5:49:48 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Late deciders made the difference. (from the article)
We were not late deciders, we were tired of their stupid polls and weren’t participating.
That’s why Salvanto is relying more on CBS’s ongoing tracking poll and less on random-sample telephone polling, ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
A tracking poll sets up a panel of thousands of voters and returns to them repeatedly over months. That lets pollsters discern the factors driving voter decisions — and gauge how attitudes change as the campaign wears on. In 2016, only two major surveys’ final predictions foresaw a Trump victory. Both of them — from the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP — were tracking polls.
Would be really interesting to see Trump back up in Minnesota stumping for our candidates there. West Virginia again tonight?
Flashback to the Can't Stump the Trump video series on Youtube.
You are so right, freedumb2003. The GOP is sleeping.
According to the news, his WV trip is concreted in now.
Manchin is figured to be plus-7 over the GOP guy. This would be a near impossible seat to take but I think with two or three Trump visits....this lead might be cut down to just four points difference, making it close enough. And stumble right now by Manchin would open up the race. This upswing on black voters for Trump....won’t be much of a plus-up in WV. But I could see five or six states where that 36-percent black vote for Trump might suddenly matter.
I would love to see Trump return to W Va if the gap closes. Manchin is well liked obviouslty
I think 90-percent of the state would say that Manchin is ‘acceptable’. On the other side of this....I think it’s his last election, and it’ll be hard for the Democratic machine to go and invent the replacement (figure 2024).
None of these blue wave stories talk about the Senate where Repubs will definitely pick up seats. Because discussing these pickups will ruin the narrative and not suppress the republican vote.
The plus 7 was poll was over a month ago. Weird now that the primary are settled, recent Senate polls are few and far between.
I tend to agree that the polling is very random, just not existing much since early June.
I think some private polls exist and they are worrying the Democrats on the close nature of races. If you see a case where five Senate seats will flip to the GOP in November...it’ll be a lock-down on the nature of the Trump enthusiasm. If they see 35-percent of blacks move over to Trump GOP candidates....they will be a shock.
I sure as heck will be. Texas is not voting for a very liberal dem.
President Trump in W. Virgiia tonight. Spread the word.
It’s looking like we will pick up maybe 3 Senate seats and retain the House.
Yeah, keep telling yourself that.
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