I would love to say that I see Casey and Wolf gone, but honestly I just don’t see anything that give me any reason to think that’s going to happen.
The GOP is not remotely delivering a message that is going to drive anyone outside the base here to show up... those non traditional MAGA voters who turned out big for Trump are not being talked to let alone given a reason to show up this fall.
Dems are going to turn out at near presidential year levels and I see, sadly, nothing on the ground to make me think R’s will get turnout above traditional mid term levels.
I’d love to eat crow in that, but short of the Dems completely overplaying their hand near Election Day and motivating this folks to turn out in soite of the GOP’s electoral incompetence... I really expect Wolf and Casey to win handily.
Sadly for the same reason I see a lot of purple and pink districts going blue, particularly in this part of the country.
The GOP seems unwilling to accept the lessons of Trump
Take a look at page 15 of the poll (link is in post #54) showing the breakdown between conservatives, moderates, and liberals. It’s quite interesting.
Conservatives vastly outnumber liberals in the poll, despite more Democrats being polled, and moderates constitute 27% of the sample.
This is why the #walkaway campaign is so interesting. I believe that the Dems’ leftward lurch has been so abrupt that it will sour many moderates on the party altogether. Whether they join #walkaway or not, I think they’re going to have trouble voting for the new Democrat socialist agenda. I also think the campaign ads are going to be devastating to the Dems this midterm for that reason. All the GOP has to do is repeat the Dems’ own words in many cases. That’s how loopy they’ve become.
Some of those “conservatives” in the poll must even vote Democrat traditionally, given how many of them there are. Those should be completely lost to the Democrats for years given their recent actions. If enough moderates also are having second thoughts about supporting socialism, this poll could be not an outlier, but a harbinger of things to come across the country.
That said, I too worry about the massive Dem turnout in many of the primary elections so far.