Folks are underestimating Silver. He has the best track record.
He projected the gop waves in 2010 and 2014.
In 2012 he had Obama at 90% chance when most others saw a horse race.
In 2016 the media was attacking him for giving Trump about a 1/3 chance. He pointed out that this election was closer than 2012 because Trump was stronger in swing states. He was the outlier saying the race was closer than liberals imagined, and giving Trump a real chance to win.
He missed really bad early in the primary season giving Trump no chance.
But overall he has been very good.
Anyone watching things could have predicted GOP wins in 2010 and 2014 given how Liberal the Dems were. Obama was going to win re-election in 2012, very rarely does a president not get a 2nd term. Of course if the GOP had put up a better candidate he might have lost as did Carter in 1980 against Reagan.
Silver isn’t that good and never was.
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/nate-silver-huffington-post-polls-twitter-230815
Here is a link where Silver F-bombs Huff Post lefties that challenged him for giving Trump a reasonable chance to win.