I believe we will retain congress, but I agree; it will be in SPITE of the GOP, not because of it. I read that republican turn out at primaries, has been dismal. Apparently, there are still quite a few republican voters out there who think primaries are no big deal. I sure hope they don’t shirk their duty in November, as well.
Every special election, Dems have been putting up near presidential year turnout, while GOP has not generally even getting their midterm numbers.
The only reason the GOP has not lost most of these special elections has been they have been in deep enough red districts that even with full D it hasn’t been enough in them.
The midterms, are almost certainly a loss of the house... UNLESS the GOP start realizing they can’t win by simply calling their opponent Pelosi clones or names... this DOESN’T PLAY outside the base at all.. and you can’t win against the highly motivated D base, without getting outside of yours when you are not in a DEEP red district.
The upper midwest, that Trump so expertly marched right up in 2016, will disappoint with that stupid messaging. You HAVE to get the non traditional MAGA voters to show up, and care.. and that sort of messaging won’t do it.
The DEMS overplaying their hands, sadly is the only chance I see for the GOP to not lose the house... The Supreme Court Fight will bring out the crazy of the D’s... no doubt.. but the GOP is shooting for confirmation prior to the new session beginning in Oct... IF the GOP does this, it will be good he is seated for the new sesssion... but may be too far away from election day for the Dem Crazy to affect the election.
We shall see how it plays out...