SYRIA'S LAST MAJOR MILITARY OPERATION AGAINST REBELS BEGINS AS RUSSIA LOOKS TO TALK WITH WEST

Russia has said it was planning to invite France, Germany and Turkey to an upcoming summit on the war in Syria as the war-torn country's military launched an operation to retake the final rebel-held province.

Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu Monday to discuss what the Russian Foreign Ministry described as "preparations for a four-lateral summit of the Russian, Turkish, German and French leaders on the Syrian settlement that is planned to be held soon," according to the state-run Tass Russian News Agency. The two men would discuss solving the crisis in Syria "through maintaining an inclusive national dialogue on the basis of generally recognized principles of international law."

Russia is a supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while the two European states and Turkey have sponsored efforts to overthrow him since a 2011 uprising also backed by the U.S. As Russia and Iran helped the Syrian government reclaim most of the country, the two Assad allies established a joint peace process along with Turkey, which has deployed troops in the final opposition bastion of Idlib in northwest Syria.

China does not really “give” anybody anything.

They don’t even have a foreign aid budget.

The many construction projects they do around the world are business deals - typically predatory business deals.

Their typical project is what is called a debt trap, where they fool or bribe local Government officials to sign their country up for a Chinese project, where the Chinese do everything, including be the bank. Later the Chinese pull the carpet out from under the business and take ownership of the asset through foreclosure of the loan.

The other big scam they run, is to trade a high profile project that benefits a local politician politically, for the rights to extract natural resources - often worth hundreds or thousands of times as much.

China is by far the biggest force in the world today for corrupting Government officials. For the Government official looking to cash in on his position, China is a one stop shop, offering complete turnkey solutions to finding scams and laundering/hiding the money.

I guess we will see if the Turks and Syrian/Russians really have cut a backroom deal whereby Syria lets Turkey take Afrin, in exchange for Turkey making the jihadis give up Idlib Province.

Even if they did cut such a deal though, none of them are likely to honor it, if they think they can now get something more.

Turkey has a huge military, especially compared to the rump of the Syrian Arab Army which still survives. But Turkey’s position has weakened dramatically with its collapsing economy and International isolation.

The whole Syrian mess has significantly cleared up through most of the country. Idlib will be the last major battle against rebels holding territory. After that, Turkey’s occupation in the North of Syria could become the main focus of the war.

Turks are geared toward mechanized, industrial era war on a defined front. The Iranians are geared toward subversion, guerrilla/terrorist tactics and surrogate local militias. The Turks may be significantly challenged in maintaining a long term occupation/annexation.

I expect that the Turks plan to pack their occupied region with Sunnis from among the refugee camps, and then have a referendum to secede from Syria and join Turkey. Significant ethnic cleansing of the native Kurdish population has already taken place.

“Their typical project is what is called a debt trap, where they fool or bribe local Government officials to sign their country up for a Chinese project, where the Chinese do everything, including be the bank. Later the Chinese pull the carpet out from under the business and take ownership of the asset through foreclosure of the loan.
The other big scam they run, is to trade a high profile project that benefits a local politician politically, for the rights to extract natural resources - often worth hundreds or thousands of times as much.”

You basically described the EU and the World Bank. Ask the Greeks

"If you were a local, you might like the Chinese method better (construction vs. destruction). Locals suffer less."

This stereotype overlooks the huge and long running foreign aid of the US (the world's largest donor nation, since WWII), as well as the reality that the Chinese infrastructure scams, are really huge rip offs.

For a while, the Nazis were the toast of the town, the face of modern scientific socialism, rebuilding German industry and building impressive Autobahns across Germany. Herr Hitler was Time Magazine's Man of the Year (1938, after a string of previous cover features). Eventually, the truth came out, and opinions changed.

Soviet propaganda and Potemkin villages had people around the world thinking that not only was socialism a viable economic system, it was actually better for developing lesser developed countries. Well into the 1960s, it was conventional thinking, and newly independent African nations adopted it wholesale. Eventually, the truth came out, and opinions changed.

Now China has had their run pulling the wool over people's eyes too. China promoted the idea that they could provide all the modern technology and development in the world - for pennies on the dollar! Just look, they did it themselves!

In country after country that bought into their deals however, the realization is the same - the Chinese are acting as overlords. That is our mine/seaport/farmland now - you leave us to it, or we will find someone who will, they threaten. Instead of bribes, local officials who try to reassert National interests face professional blackmail by Chinese Intelligence. The countries have lost their most valuable assets, and face bleaker long term development prospects. Increasingly, the truth is coming out, and opinions are changing.

"You basically described the EU and the World Bank (lending for Infrastructure. Ask the Greeks"

So you dismiss Western construction (and ignore the largest donor, the US, altogether), but admire Chinese construction?

That ignores the fundamental difference between a good deal on subsidized terms, and a bad deal on predatory terms.

The World Bank offers below average interest rates, and includes substantial grants in the financing for projects that have been carefully analyzed to most benefit the country. The Chinese charge above average interest rates, provide no aid grants, and design projects unilaterally to ensure their failure, so they can seize the collateral.

If an irresponsible socialist Greek Government cannot balance their checkbook, and blows their rent money on domestic political giveaways, that does mean that their subsidized rent was a bad deal. They got great deals on the real investment projects, and only began to face higher interest rates on cash loans to cover their budget deficits, as they consistently refused to spend less than took in, or stick to the terms of their loans. It is a totally different story of budget support, which the Chinese do not do at all.

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