ping - you were right all alone LS...
Ok, everyone recognize this is not a fast move. In 1932, blacks voted overwhelmingly for Hoover, but moved in 1936. They could have moved back if the GOP had addressed them at all.
In 2016, we saw 3% fewer blacks vote in several key states: NC, FL, PA, MI, VA, WI. A mere 3% in FL was 115,000 votes!!
Note they didn’t vote for Trump (yet), but they were done with the D party. Currently Trump’s approval #s move from 16% to the 20s, but what’s more important is that in the SurveyMonkey survey, originally 56% of the blacks in that survey said they were DemoKKKrats. Today that number is down to 21%. Note that this is a “rolling survey” that keeps people on, so these aren’t one group of people leaving and a different group coming in-—the SAME GROUP has stayed there, more or less, the whole time.
That means we aren’t seeing “different blacks”-—we are seeing the same people changing their opinions, and very consistently in one direction.
Based on that, in 2020 I think you could expect 15-20% black vote for Trump . . .but another 20-25% of black voters just staying home, then the next cycle a large segment of them would join the GOP and still more would “un-register” as Ds until the Ds are down to 10%.
Note also that for now that support is for Trump. Rs have only gained about 4% since November 2016. Rs will have to be very Trump-like to stretch their appeal, but Trump shows it can be done with a very conservative agenda.