Posted on 08/09/2018 7:20:42 AM PDT by SMGFan
The magic number of seats Democrats need to hit to win back the House majority is 23. But in reality, it’s almost certainly a much smaller number.
Several GOP-held seats are almost certainly already in the bag, meaning Democrats likely need to take a smaller number of competitive seats — perhaps as few as 15 — to return to the majority for the first time since 2010. It’s all making Republicans nervous — even before Tuesday’s special election in Ohio, where a Republican candidate appears to have just scraped by in a district that has been in GOP hands since 1983, and that President Trump won just two years ago by 11 points.
“I don’t think there is necessarily a blue wave, but what concerns me is suburban districts in New Jersey, Philadelphia, New York, Illinois and California — those are not good for us,” said one blue-state House Republican lawmaker.
“Educated women, young people independents — they are energized. I clearly think [Democrats] have enough to win over 24 seats. …”
Democrats, for their part, are taking nothing for granted, saying it’s well too soon to divert resources from any districts.
“The biggest strategic challenge [Democrats] have will come in September and October when they’ve got to make a decision whether some races are now in the safe column and they can divert resources to lean-Republican races,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.).
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
people: Let’s not curl up in a ball and whimper b/c media is gloating. We need to work harder, smarter and drag more people to vote than the other side. Leave it all on the field this November. Do your best and let God do the rest.
I, for one, am worried. If people don’t show up, like they have in these special elections, the Dems could take back the House.
Trump is the key.
It all falls to Trump. The Establishment wants to lose this one.
I refuse to worry... If the Dems take the house, our descent into hell accelerates... If the Republicans hold the house, our descent into hell accelerates less.
In a sane world the Democrats would have Green Party type numbers. I realize the Ohio 12 race has shaken a lot of people in our ranks, but we got to stop with this fatalistic attitude. We’re only a few thousand here on FR. There are tens of millions of non-Freepers who think along the same lines with most of us. I have faith, misguided or not, that a majority of Americans will reject the communist policies the Democrats are offering! We shall see!
No reason to worry. Every midterm other than after 911 goes in the opponents favor. The house may flip or we may maintain a narrow lead. I hope it is not a huge wave and do not expect it. The senate will stay in republican hands with almost near certainty. If it flips then trump has a easy foe to bash for two years leading up to his re-election.
I hope to see an energized vote on our side but it all depends on events and how strong our candidates are.
The scary thing is that the Democrats have at least 90% of the media behind them and they have no qualms about cheating in every possible way to get the results that they want. But it is worse than that, they have got an army of petty bureaucrats working for them as well.
I went in to renew my drivers license the other day. The place was filled to the brim with non-English speakers and their interpreters. Virtually every DMV employee that I came into contact with asked if they could register me to vote or update my voter registration.
Unfortunately, I was not able to renew my Commercial Drivers License because for the first time since I first got my license more than 40 years ago I was told that I had to have my valid legal birth certificate and a utility bill with me to confirm my address.
The employee would not return my commercial drivers license to me and suspended my commercial driving privileges. I had to pay over $90 just to get them to print out a temporary license. They took my picture but the temporary is just a printout without a picture, they said that the actual photo ID will not arrive for about a month. I have written “see photo ID” on virtually every credit card I have. And the pharmacy I have been going to for years where I pick up my blood pressure meds will not give the medicine to me without photo ID. Not to mention all the other places that want to see your government issued photo ID for nonsensical reasons these days. MY wife and I do frequent volunteer work on the military bases around here... we can scratch that for the next month.
Then I have to pay $30 to order a new copy of my birth certificate from the health department of the county I was born in, because they will not accept the one that the hospital issued to my parents with my baby foot print on it from the hospital. Several weeks from now when that birth certificate arrives I have to go back in and pay another $90 to the DMV to get my commercial driving privileges renewed.
So to get to the point of my post... Out of curiosity I the guy who wouldn’t give my license back to me if I needed to jump through any of these hoops for him to update my voter registration or register me to vote. The DMV employee who had just given me a ration of crap and refused to renew my commercial driver’s license acted indignant and said that was ridiculous... I was told that it would be immoral, discriminatory, and illegal to require people to produce a birth certificate and proof of residence to be registered to vote. He implied that I was a racist for even asking.
I think the GOP and ANY conservative have to take the threat very seriously.
They plan to take control of congress, impeach President Trump and V. President Pence and replace them. A Constitutional coup d'etat, and I'm sure that Madam Hillary Benghazi has calculated some convoluted strategy to have herself crowned.
Only ¡JEB! can defeat Hillary. Donald Trump is not a serious candidate and he will never be the Republican nominee.
Lowering expectations.
To me it’s unfathomable and disheartening that there are so many clueless and/or lazy Republicans that don’t understand or see the importance of voting in this election, like they didn’t in Ohio.
It's almost like the entirety of journalism in this country is one-sided.
-PJ
With Trump on the campaign trail, the Republicans will pick-up dozens of additional seats in November.
Direct quote from an "anonymous Republican House member".
Seriously, such a goofy invented quote. I asked an anonymous Democrat House member what he thought and he said, "Smart people would never vote for a Democrat, nor would people with a working sense of smell. We are surely about to lose given what we know and also I am a turd."
That's a direct quote.
GOP is maxed out in possible gains due to redistricting. But they refer to possible gain in MN.
Where else did Trump carry a house but Dem won the seat?
In Ohio, I read that the GOP turnout was about 40% and the Dem turnout was 87%. In frickin’ August. Those turnout numbers cannot produce anything good.
Depressing to read the discussions here go from “the House is safe” to “good chance the House goes DEM”. Our country truly is effed up.
Not really. Its the opposite...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.