“Even that idea - cell phones had a certain trejectory of adoption and so will driverless cars - IS another apples vs oroanges analogy, BECAUSE, as I said, having a technology base does not automatically mean anything about their adoption, and there are numerous differences in both their product markets and their industries.”
The difference between the two things I compared only FAVOR more rapid adoption of self-driving technology. Smart phones created a new market that the average person did not even see the need for. Self-driving cars will address needs for greater safety, efficiency, convenience, and cost savings of an EXISTING market. No theories needed.
“I predict that ‘driverless cars’ will go the way of the very early electric cars - a thought to be ‘cool’ idea that will die on the vine. Why? The mass market will not materialize.”
First, there is a distinction between self-driving cars and “driverless cars”. There are already many self-driving cars on the road today. They generally operate with some degree of autonomy even though most are designed to have a human in the “driver’s seat”.
We have many companies investing in the technology that makes fully autonomous vehicles possible now. The biggest hurdle is regulation. Neither electric cars nor self-driving cars are going to “die on the vine”.
This seems to be an emotional issue for you. If so, that makes your predictions, assumptions, and logic highly suspect as biased. What happens in the area of self-driving cars is not up to you or me. It is not a matter of what you want to happen. It is a matter of how various forces and trends converge to produce an outcome.
The ability of AI to carry out functions which have always been in the human domain is not some future, theoretical aspiration. This is happening daily. More and more human capabilities will be carried out by computers. And controlling transportation vehicles is one of the things AI will become very good at.
Cost and safety will result in widespread adoption. Sooner or later, humans driving cars will seem as outdated as using an abacus for inventory management. Whether the time frame is 10 years, 20, or more, I do not know. I suspect the 10-15 year range is a very reasonable prediction. Could be sooner or later.
As I’ve said on earlier posts, the silly prediction of self-driving technology going away reminds me of a computer-consulting business owner I once did some work for in the early 90s. I told him he needed to get his business online, and he replied that he thought the Internet was a fad.
Sorry, I have been in the IT field since the 70s and have ssen more technology that was new and innovative die on the vine than you can imagine. This - driverless cars - will be another one. The markets for it will not sustain it from an early wave point to mass market, and without that mass market most early wave stuff dies.