How many are illegals?
How many are dead?
How many are double-registered?
And how much of a lead was there in 2016, and does such a lead really matter?
In Democratic states, people are reluctant to register Republican, fearing harassment, ridicule, property tax assessment discriminstion, grade discrimination by professors, etc. They read about Republicans getting beat up and get the message.
The Commiecrats are 8M ahead in CA and NY.
They win the popular vote by 3-5M and wonder why the Electoral votes don't follow.
They're killing it in CA and NY but go look at that red/blue U.S. county map again.
IDK but I am one of those R’s that is now an ‘I’ thanks to GOPe and I believe President Trump has a YUUUGE block of support in that I category.
Dead? very few. Illegals? very few.
Double Registered? Very many.
When people move, they sometimes change the address on their driver’s license. This leads to changing their voter address ... or the DMV automatically changing it for them. The Democrats have an aggressive, effective ground game to get them registered... something the other side has not had since the ChristianCoalition/MoralMajority did massive voter registration in the years leading up to 1994.
It takes a while, what with court cases dragging out, for the voter roles to be cleaned up. Few of the double registered vote twice. Patronage staff and contractors of local politicians want to impress their boss with how many votes they turn out. A good vote turnout means a promotion. A lousy turnout means a contract canceled.
So Patronage impersonate the voters who moved. They also impersonate the illegals and dead. In the 2012 primary I voted early. The lady a couple people in front of me got to the front of the line. The election judges were suspicious as they knew one of the people she was impersonating. They called around to other early voting places. She had already voted at a couple other places that day.
She was unsophisticated and readily told her story. She was recently hired to do office work for the local union hall. She was given a list of people whom she was told were good citizens who could not vote. So if she pretended to be them and voted on their behalf, she would be helping those good people.
Vote fraud is most effective in low turnout elections where the vote fraud makes a difference. Other than US Senator in MN, there is no evidence of vote fraud making a difference in the outcome of a major race.
But in a low turnout primary or off year election it can, and does, make a big difference. It should be noted that most districts (City Council, State Rep, County office, Congressional district) are certain to go for one party or the other. Few districts are purple. For that reason, the incentive for vote fraud is in the primary.
Probably the Jackson v Beavers race for Chicago City Council holds the record for the most vote fraud in our lifetime. That is because both sides, the OperationPush/Jesse Jackson side and the Beaver/Stroger/Obama side both committed massive vote fraud.
My neighbor in a far suburb complained to me how he had to go into the city and go from precinct to precinct impersonating the people his mother-in-law gave him. Everyone in the family and in the church had to do it. If my neighbor didn’t do it, he would be blamed for his mother-in-law losing her job and furthermore, he would then be stuck supporting his mother-in-law. He had incentive to commit vote fraud.