Oil's New Technology Spells End Of Boom For Roughnecks

Wall Street Journal ^ | 10 July 2018 | Christopher M. Matthews

[Cronos]

True, I create stuff that6 automates a lot of routine work - both physical and mental (think clerks) - and I've done a lot of worrying about this over the past few years.

i see it as inevitable that, within 10 years most routine jobs will be automated. The price for automation (programs, hardware) will be so low it will not be worth hiring burger flippers or bank staff. you just want smart creatives.

But the smart creatives are only 10% of the population (or less). So what do we do with the remaining 90%? perhaps some can be retrained, but not all. This is going to be bad especially as the pace of change is accelerating.

[Cronos]

it's different

The reasons it is different are:

1. it's not just carriage builders - it is wide swathes of industries and jobs across the entire population
2. The pace is too fast - the carriage makers still had a few years or decades to fade away
3. the changes are too different - think of a mobile phone manufacturer being upended by the smart phone world.

this is not the same

[zeestephen]

Re: “Problem is, no one can pass a drug test.”

That's a little hard to believe.

How many druggies would go to all the trouble of applying and interviewing for a job when they know they can't pass a pre-employment drug screen?

My Bottom Line...

Pay enough money, and there will NEVER be a shortage of good workers who want to work for you.

If you can't afford to pay good workers, you need to develop a new business plan.

[Lean-Right]

That’s just it. They don’t apply
because they know they won’t pass.
They are (in this area) paid a
decent wage. They start at $20/hr
with excellent benefits.
The Midland/Odessa areas are
booming.

[WMarshal]

“Bottom Line - a lot of Americans are going to need a “minimum income” by 2040.”

A ‘minimum income’ from the government is a recipe for slavery. As government controls more of the money that people need to survive the more powerful it gets and the less freedom and prosperity citizens have as they are robbed blind by their ‘public servants’.

Even if you’re right about the large displacement of workers by automation and robots, which I do not believe, a far better solution would be to limit the work week. If half of America is unemployed with a 40 hour work week the a better solution would be to pass a law for a 20 hour work week. Employment numbers would increase and the new employees would not be enslaved by government payments.

Why is there such a need for dependency on government? Dealing with government bureaucrats and their odious laws, regulations, and incompetence is infuriating so why would anyone want more of it?

[zeestephen]

Re: “Dealing with government bureaucrats and their odious laws, regulations, and incompetence is infuriating so why would anyone want more of it?”

I don’t want more of it.

I want peace in the streets.

There is a basic problem with your 20/20 job solution...

People and skill levels are not interchangeable.

I was a good athlete in my youth. But no amount of training or personal commitment would have ever turned me into a great athlete.

Exceptional people will probably always have jobs or create businesses.

But average and below average people will slowly but surely be permanently replaced by robots and AI.

We need a long range plan to deal with that reality, and a guaranteed national income, which would actually eliminate millions of government jobs, seems like the best solution to me.