I would say that a supreme court justice is more important than an election. Don’t get me wrong, both are important, but these are midterms. And a supreme court justice could be on for 30 years. Stacking the supreme court right now with conservatives could change the tide of the country. Trump might have a chance to put in two more justices! To replace Ginsberg and Breyer. That would make it 7 to 2!
” would say that a supreme court justice is more important than an election. Don’t get me wrong, both are important, but these are midterms.”
You miss the strategy, it’s not one or the other - either way, Trump will get Kavanaugh (barring something horrible about him comes out). The only question is when, and then with that, how many seats in the Senate do the Republicans have next year.
The way the math works is that if Kavanaugh is confirmed now, and with some (Red State) Democrat votes, the Senate remains in play in November - the Dems may well take it over. If they take it over, ALL judicial nominations stop cold - including the lower courts. So Trump has 5-4 on Supreme, but that’s it.
But if Kavanaugh is rejected the seat remains open, and if the rejection is due to Red State Democrats voting against him (along with 1 or 2 Republicans), then we pick up several seats in November, easily confirm Kavanaugh next year, and then easily confirm whoever else is nominated for the Supreme Court (if any), as well as all of the other courts.
That’s why one could argue that Trump wouldn’t be so upset with the second outcome. The only real difference is that Kavanaugh won’t be there for several months...important, but not the end of the world.
But don’t get me wrong - Trump will give it a full go...regardless of the outcome he prefers, since he knows we want him in NOW, not later.