Posted on 06/24/2018 3:46:08 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
This CBS News Battleground Tracker poll is interesting, for a number of reasons. It was large, sampling over 2,000 Americans (not registered voters), it was taken at the height of the “separated children” hysteria (June 21-22), and cross tabs are supplied.
Given the timing of the survey, the results are mostly reassuring for Republicans. The Democrats’ generic ballot advantage is only four points–and again, respondents aren’t even registered voters, let alone likely voters. And despite the press’s coordinated effort to whip up hysteria over the separated children issue, check out this finding:
Do you approve or disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling the matter of children and parent separation at the border?
Approve: 42% Disapprove: 58%
In general, I am not much of a believer in the “secret Trump voter” theory, but given the timing of this survey and the media tempest, I have to think that 42% is a minimum.
This finding may shed light on why so many Americans don’t buy the press’s spin:
Which of these do you think should be done with families trying to enter the U.S. illegally?
Release the entire family back to their home country together: 48% Arrest the parents and keep the children in a separate detention facility: 4% Arrest the parents but keep the children with them in the same detention facility: 11% Release the entire family in the U.S. temporarily and require that they report back for a hearing later: 21% Not sure: 16%
Note that only 21% support the Obama administration’s lax policy. This question and the responses thereto perhaps provide the clearest window into what Americans actually think about immigration:
In your view, over recent years, have recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America made life in the state of [state] better or worse?
Better: 23% Worse: 32% Not had an impact either way: 45%
These poll results are also a vivid reminder that most people don’t vote in midyear elections.
As best you can recall, have you voted in a midterm election before in [state] either in 2014 or 2010?
Yes: 47% No: 53%
Moreover, only 49% say they “definitely” will vote this year, while 9% say they “probably” will vote. Those numbers point to another low turnout.
From the Democrats’ perspective, their 4-point lead on the generic ballot doesn’t provide much comfort. Too many of their voters are concentrated in urban areas, for one thing. Piling up big margins in those districts doesn’t help. In politics, as in sports, it doesn’t matter whether you win 90-10 or 51-49.
Beyond that, Republicans, on average, are better educated and more civically minded than Democrats, and are more likely to vote in midterm elections. This CBS poll documents this clearly. Overall, 47% say they have voted in at least one of the last two midterm elections. But the breakdown is not even: 52% of Democrats say they have voted in one of those elections, compared with 64% of Republicans. (Independents are the least likely to vote.) Similarly, when asked about their intentions this year, 58% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans say they “definitely” will turn out. So the Democrats’ 4% preference margin vanishes.
There are a lot more interesting results at the link; I’d encourage you to browse. In a later post I will explain why, even though this snapshot is quite optimistic for November’s elections, it should cause concern about the country’s long-term future.
In politics, only the short term matters.
hat do you think these poll numbers will be once the progressive Marxist retards begin in earnest to follow Mad Maxine’s insane orders to her “shock troops?”
And more pointedly, after the predictable outcome of some member of the Trump Administration, a Trump-supporter, or some other Republican getting seriously injured or killed, then where do these numbers go?
And lastly, on the better than fair chance that these idiots, in some bizarre twist of a “protest,” actually torch their cities - where the result is that hundreds or even 1000s of Americans perish - then what shall be November’s outcome?
Large pick ups happen only when the other party is in the White House and Trump is listed as "R".
There aren't that many districts available held by democrats that a republican can win. The republicans aren't going to win these urban districts that everyone reflexively votes democrat.
In Virginia, Comstock who is the repub rep for the 10th district is a sure loss on the repub side for a number of reasons. Her seat is guaranteed lost and the dems may pick up one or two more in this state. The republican party is a disaster in this state and it's getting worse.
Even a fairly popular president loses seats in the midterms. There have been only two instances in which the party in the White House picked up seats in the midterms and the last one was in 2002 under W and it makes sense, since that was right after 9/11.
The republicans will lose seats in November, but it is hard to guess now, since there are still many primary contests on the calendar.
The Senate - I wish you were right on that one, too, but the pubs have already thrown in the towel on Wisc, Minn and one other state I can't remember at the moment. The senate committee has already decided not to contest those seats, so there you go.
I had read of this yrs ago. Generic polls generally overstate Dem support by an average of 4 or 5%.
Big mistake to try and use past midterms to predict this upcoming one.
Just as the 2016 election was like none other this midterm is as well.
keep threatening you stupid Dummycraps..
You took your best shot. Now you’ll feel how it’s done.
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