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“Wouldn’t it take over a decade to complete the job?” (at 100 miles per year)

Yes, it would. So in a way, they would be slow-rolling Trump until he is out of office.

When I say 100 miles per year is good, that is only in comparison to historical norms - not in terms of getting it done optimally.

100 miles of strong barrier, with patrol roads, lights, cameras and sensors; placed where it is most needed; has a strong effect. That is pretty good. In the great majority of years, almost nothing gets done to strengthen the border.

If you want to make sure that the job gets effectively done though, before political winds blow the other way, 100 miles per year won’t do it.

These midterms are probably the biggest determinant. President Trump likely gets one more lump of funding in the coming budget (FY19), before the next Congress is seated. Congress will likely try to default to another $1.6 billion, but the President will likely push for a $10 or $20 billion lump sum. If Democrats take the house in the midterms, then $1.6/yr is probably the best case.

If the President gets only two years of funding at $1.6 billion, the net effect will be that the urbanized parts of the border (San Diego, El Paso, Laredo, and the Rio Grande Valley) will be much stronger, forcing the main migrant flows to shift to less convenient (often difficult) routes.

It will also significantly harden against a “wave attack” like the recent caravan, or what used to be the situation in San Diego, before the current barrier. They need urban areas to stage, before making a run.

So in my view, if we only get 200 miles of Trump-style barrier before political disaster halts construction (my worst case scenario), it will still be a pretty good improvement. I anticipate that we will do better than that.

If Republicans do well in the mid-terms, $1.6 billion per year (~100 miles) would likely be the baseline, with upside potential.

The President has FY19 and FY20 left to contract construction during his first term, on top of the 100 miles getting contracted this year.

If the President can get a large lump sum in the next (FY19) budget, I would estimate 300 miles (a challenging increase) could get put on contract in 2019 (200 is a more conservative estimate, 400 or more is possible in rural, Government-owned land). If this happens, then FY20 would likely be a big year too (300-500).

If the President gets 700 miles or more of strong barrier contracted in his first term, then illegal border crossing will become a difficult rural trek, and will likely plummet in volume. But every 100 miles is a significant help.