“Russia is ostracized and largely isolated so it has marginal influence and mostly with small nations that fear it and rogue nations like Syria, Iran and NKorea.”
Sometimes the size of the nation isn’t a stimpmeter as to the determination of strength. Russia, in my thoughts and others like me that have dealt in the internal workings of groups, knew in advance of the handing over of technology and devices many years ago.
A leaked Washington Post report back in the 90’s claims a deal to sell off the “crown jewels” of Moscow’s arsenal was struck by a group of “US investors” and Russian scientists including plans to use submarine-launched missiles called “Calm” and “Ripple.” However when that deal hit legal and bureaucratic roadblocks due to restrictions, Russia turned to North Korean buyers directly instead. So the cat got out of the bag, so to speak. And we’re not in the clear either as Clinton supplied the MRV tracking capacity to China so they could site their missiles that rebounded almost immediately to North Korea. And he further supplied directly to Korea the supercomputers to turn industrial grade uranium into weapons grade under the guise of agricultural improvements. Welcome to the space age. Money by the pound.
But the Russian psychology of government is very complex. They like to play both sides against the middle. Just over the last 30 years alone they have been providing those small rogue countries you mentioned with ways to deliver weapons that we are sure of.
They supplied Iraq with the middle range missiles they used to “shell” Israel during the gulf war. They supplied Korea with the first of their missile parts for the KN-02 Toksa middle range and are currently assisting them with technology for the Hwasong-15, an ICBM they tested in 2017.
And they are currently assisting, if not directly involved with, the chemical weapons being used in Syria
“but they have no Carriers or serious force projection nor the basing and logistics to maintain projection.”
But what they do have is growing menagerie of nations they are rapidly, as fast as they can, developing long range nuclear capacity to try to put the scare into the US and China. And I feel their efforts are just like years ago when they were just as capable of tossing ICBMs to scare us and are spreading them around like they tried with Cuba in the 60’s. Only this time, it’s legal and lethal. Can they serve good food to their people? No, not really. But they can intentionally serve technology and parts to rogue nations to create a world wide disaster fear. One that the little countries will be beholding to. And that makes them a superpower in my mind..
rwood
I agree with you factual statements.
I agree with much of your rationale. So, we have a lot of agreement there, except the final conclusion. But, it’s just a matter of degree.
IMO unless Putin changes or they can better perspective and leave their “rogue state” foreign policy agenda, Russia will be a player as a chaos nuisance.
China has been smart enough to manipulate capitalism so they can build a technological path to a professional tech oriented military. I fear them as a serious competitor and superpower challenge in the future. In addition, they are already acting with extreme belligerence in the South China Sea, by taking disputed territories that they have little if any claim to.