I suspected a lot of the points you made. Also buttresses my suspicion about the drive behind "universal background check" or "closing the gun show loophole" or whatever other euphemism is used. The Feds may claim not to be keeping a database, but the Left is trying to capture transfers of firearms (especially those acquired pre-NICS or in the case of post NICS those given away or sold privately).
Point is, to what end? For me, that question is largely rhetorical (See California and Lockyear, or New York State post SAFE act).
“...buttresses my suspicion about the drive behind “universal background check” or “closing the gun show loophole” or whatever other euphemism is used....” [Tench_Coxe, post 88]
Federal law does not regulate transfer of firearms between private citizens. This is a central complaint of those who want tighter control.
State and local law can and does regulate such transfers. California performs the most regulation; it has created what is essentially a parallel system, licensing dealers on its own, and banning all transfers unless handled with dealer as middleman. Applies to dealers in other states as well; no dealer may ship firearms into California unless they are on the California Attorney General’s “approved” list. Many firms quit doing business in California as a consequence.