Russia will retain control of all Ukrainian and Northern European pipelines, and North Sea supplies will be disastrously insufficient.
The only other option is European supply by tankers from the US, impossible now, and incredibly expensive to build.
If Turkey specifies other than Western Banking (SWIFT) to transfer payment for pipeline transported products, there will be serious realignment of most of the World's Banking, and George Soros will be very sad.
As will the Deep Swamp.
check out the latest news on zero hedge - chinese start paying for oil only in yuan starting June 1st.
I can guarantee that useful alternatives to SWIFT are coming quickly. SWIFT is the only way we can enforce sanctions. Its a huge billy club.
Once there are useful alternatives to SWIFT, kiss dollar reserve currency goodbye. It will take 20 years of pain to dedollarize world trade, but the pain will start immediately.
What is the effect if Washington needs to pay 6% on its debt instead of 1 1/2% ?
What is the effect of Washington can not run budget deficits ?