Posted on 03/22/2018 8:41:23 AM PDT by Kaslin
Democrats must pick up 23 seats to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. They have plenty of openings since 68 seats currently held by Republicans are at varying levels of risk.
A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that 28 of these Republican seats are at a high level of risk (Democrat favored, Toss-Up, Tilt Republican). Fourteen more are modestly competitive while leaning in the GOP direction. Finally, 26 others might be at risk depending upon the political environment this fall.
Seven Republican seats are already tilting or leaning to the Democrats. These are races where Republican incumbents like Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) retired.
Another 13 races are rated as pure toss-ups bringing the number of top-tier Democratic opportunities to 20. Five (5) are found in Pennsylvania due to a court-ordered redistricting plan and most are suburban districts.
Given that midterm election dynamics typically favor the party out of power, all 20 GOP seats rated as toss-ups or tilting in the Democratic direction could easily flip from R to D in November. Adding to the challenge for Republicans is that there are very few opportunities for GOP gains. Only two Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups.
While these realities are encouraging for Democrats, they can't win the majority without defeating some Republican candidates who are currently favored. In fact, control might be determined by the results in eight (8) Republican seats currently rated as barely tilting in favor of the incumbent party. While each race has its own distinct characteristics, the results are likely to be reflective of the national political dialogue.
For example, Minnesota-3 could be decided by the electoral power of the Republican tax-cuts. In a district Clinton won by 9 points, Democrats hope to use that issue against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen. On the other hand, Paulsen believes that "tax cuts and regulatory reform have created real momentum in our economy." If the tax cut message works, it will help Paulsen keep his job along with many other Republicans in competitive districts.
In Texas-3, John Culberson was seen early on as a potential target for Democrats. Clinton narrowly won his district and the incumbent was slow to build a campaign team and fundraise. But he may have caught a break due to the deep divide between progressives and more centrist candidates. National Democratic strategists openly opposed progressive Laura Moser in the primary, but she made it to the run-off anyhow.
The Democratic civil war may benefit Culberson and other Republicans hoping to keep their jobs. If progressive candidates like Moser are nominated, it could turn off more pragmatic voters. On the other hand, if more centrist Democrats are nominated, it's not clear whether progressive voters will maintain their enthusiasm to vote in November.
If tax cuts and the Democratic civil war help candidates like Paulsen and Culberson win, the GOP might have a decent election night and retain narrow control of the House. Still, even a good night for Paul Ryan's party would probably mean losing 15-20 seats.
On the other hand, there's a lot of potential upside for the Democrats. With 68 Republican seats at risk, Nancy Pelosi's team can dream of a victory as big as the Republican gains in 2010.
No they won't. They don't want to be saddled with President Pence and a pissed-off basket of Deplorables in every state Trump won.
You can guarantee Pelosi will tap dance her way out of impeachment talks once she regains her speaker position.
Then maybe he should reconsider signing the spending bill that is designed to elect a democratic congress?
Exactly. There is only a relatively small number of the “true believer” types among them. Once they are neutralized, the lemmings will fall in place.
“The Republican Party needs an enema, and getting wiped out in November is one way to do it.
Sure it will impact Trump in the short-term, but hopefully they’ll have their act together for 2020, and get rid of the deadwood in the meantime.”
How stupid...............the GOP is a let down but that still does not mean you give the devilcrats a win...we need to vote in MORE GOP...so we overwhelm the bad GOPe voice...and make sure we are having the back of POTUS!
YAWN
YAWN
YAWN
Wrong, a map of districts without opposition was recently posted here. I can’t find it. It showed less than ten on either side unopposed and some had not reached filling deadlines.
With not a single mile of Wall funded, but countless billions on pork, the GOP has little chance of holding the House.
Why? What difference does it make for us to vote Republican? Tell me why we should be fooled yet again by their conservative whispers and blown kisses? All lies, all false, all bogus. I’m sick of it. I won’t vote Democrat but I may skip over the race in this district, and my Republican congressman has a primary and general election.
The problem with this sort of “analysis” is you want to knee jerk throw the baby out with the bathwater in fit of petulance.
Get in the game if you don’t like the way it is being played. Don’t just sit on your ass in the stands whining at the players on the field.
Was stationed in Groton/New London myself back in early 70’s. Whole different world now.
“Under no circumstances can we allow the dems to take Congress back”
What difference, at this point, does it make? It’s the uniparty so the critters all are the same.
This is exactly the same crap you all spent most of 2006 posting
It gave you a Democrat Congress in 2006 and a Democrat President in 2010 which turned around forced Obamacare on the nation.
YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM, not part of the solution with this sort of politics by temper tantrum
You’re the one that is yelling.
But don’t worry, after November, the Uniparty will still be running the show just like it is right now.
“if we lose the House the rats will impeach President Trump”
There are a few GOP who would vote for impeachment, too; don’t think they won’t.
If you back Trump
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