Posted on 03/15/2018 7:34:06 AM PDT by reaganaut1
Economists estimate President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs will reduce U.S. employment only modestly, but increasingly worry that foreign-trade disputes could escalate and damage the U.S. economy.
Forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal continue to expect solid economic growth this year, but see rising odds that growth will come in below expectations. Just over half said risks were tilted to the downside, jumping from 30% in February and the highest share since September. Even generally optimistic economists cited trade policy or protectionism as risks to the outlook.
“With everything looking better coming into the year, trust politics to risk messing it all up,” said Scotiabank economist Derek Holt.
Most forecasters said the 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% tariff on imported aluminum that Mr. Trump unveiled last week would reduce overall employment in the U.S., as gains in the domestic steel and aluminum industries would be outweighed by losses in sectors that purchase those metals.
The average change in net employment expected due to the tariffs was about 53,000 jobs lost—a relatively modest number in an economy that added nearly 2.2 million nonfarm jobs during 2017, and 313,000 in February alone.
The economists predicted a larger effect if other countries retaliate with limited tariffs of their own: roughly 137,000 jobs lost on average. If tit-for-tat retaliation escalated, raising global tariff and nontariff barriers to levels last seen in the early 1990s, before the creation of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization, the economists on average saw 845,000 jobs lost.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
“Trade wars raise prices for consumers and cost jobs.”
But “dumping,” slave labor, and one-sided tariffs - as imposed by our trading “partners” - do not cost American jobs. Got it. I guess you hang your shingle with the globalists, who have all but destroyed the industrial manufacturing base of the United States.
You people never cease to amaze me with your anti-protectionist, “free market” bull crap narrative - even as all the while our so-called trading partners screw us over with their version of protectionist policies and tariffs.
I guess, in your fantasy world of “free trade”, we Americans only need to shut up, and continue to take the globalist shaft up our wazoos.
And price increases? Let see ... When a pair of Levi’s jeans were made in the USA, they cost me about $16 ... Now, thanks to all that wonderful “free trade,” by which you knot heads forced most American factories and good paying jobs to go bye-bye, that same pair of jeans, now made in Mexico, cost me north of $60. Do you think the Mexican workers are seeing any of that money? No - but their globalist masters rake in the profits at both the expense of American and Mexican workers.
The same situation is true for just about every product that Americans used to make ourselves. We lost our jobs, we lost our culture, while seeing the cost of our necessities increase by 500%.
Your “free trade” argument does not hold up to scrutiny. It’s just more of the same old worn out, fear-mongering, globalist bullsh*t that your side has spewed for the past 40 years, despite the fact that Americans lost jobs and suffered higher prices just the same.
The jig is up. We are wise to this game, and now we have a American champion - President Trump - who is calling the shots for the home team. I’m sure that disappoints and upsets all your fellow globalist “free trade” travelers ... Well, buddy, that’s too effing bad. It’s our turn now.
That’s exactly correct.
Meh, they never had a problem with the damage Obama did to consumers.
I bet you didn’t either. Is this okay with Ted?
We need a new way to do things. Your way was not working.
Scare tactics. You’ve never been right about anything.
What do you get when you put a dozen economists in a room?
About a hundred opinions, none of which are right.
Yep - always surprised every time the fake numbers were downgraded every quarter to lousy numbers and then surprised when Trump gets good job numbers and better growth than they and Obama said was possible any more - they are still in the “we miss the ‘new normal’ crappy news every quarter” mode...
Trump has been right about everything else he’s done so far so I’m going to say let him try this out and see what happens.
See, these same people prophesying doom because of ending so-called free trade also said the economy would go into a tailspin if Trump were elected.
In short, the President’s performance record is better than that of his critics.
MAGA!
You keep posting this anti tariff op ed pieces and you also call yourself a reaganaut. You do know that Reagan did what Trump is doing now, don’t you?
And Krugman would oppose Trump’s tariffs but support Obama’s. It’s settled science, you know.
I like your post!
The never trumpers are desperate to quickly drive President Trump from office and undo his America first policies.
Before the American people can see the difference with their own eyes...
We’re not going to let that happen.
So the solution of this “economist” is to capitulate to the demands of other nations and accept burdensome trade deficits as the status quo?
Trillions of dollars have been and continue to be syphoned out of the American economy.
We don’t need a trade system based on income redistribution that makes the rich richer (i.e. socialism). We need one in which property rights are respected, and slave labor is rejected.
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