This is a special election to replace an elected official for the remainder of term, right? So there will be another election for the same seat this Fall.
So republican turnout was low, right? Who can get excited about a seat that is to be filled for only 8 or so months before another election?
The only lesson is that democrats can win when the republican base stays home, duh.
If I had to bet, I would bet the republican base turns out in November.
Until then, this issue is nothing more than grist for media types to chew on when they have nothing better to do.