The LSM pundits are having a field day, but if you have a race after a scandal it’s not unusual to have the scandal’s party underperform in an election. They’re all going to be surprised when this “Blue Wave” they’re salivating over turns out to be a Blue Drip.
You are correct.
Like Alabama a sex scandal will have negatively impact the incumbent party.
Murphy’s scandal was particularly damaging. Supposed Pro Life candidate impregnates mistress and pushes for abortion.
Other factors:
Saccone was a lackluster candidate who ran a poor campaign.
Lamb pretended to be a “conservative” Democrat running from Sanders and Pelosi.
These Special Elections ALWAYS favor the motivated party. Democrats are more motivated.
Having said all that Republicans had better start to unify and rally behind Trump.