It’s going to depend on turnout. And recently the Democrats are turning out in better numbers than the Republicans.
Democrats are motivated, and the messaging that this Campaign has had, is literally the same messaging any R would have for the last 15 years or more... I don’t see that really motivating turnout beyond the core R voter...
The messaging has been BAD day one... Its only in the last few days I’ve heard Saccone even mention Trump’s name, the entire campaign both sides have not mentioned it.. unfortunately Saccone has been dropping it in interviews as an “I was Trump before Trump” type message.. which is BAD as well.
If the Messaging R’s have been employing in this special election is their game plan for the fall, they will lose the house. Saccone should win by a few points, but that’s not guaranteed, but the fact this race is so close, even if Saccone pulls it out, its clear evidence that the messaging is not motivating turnout!!!
This has been BAD guys, really Bad... if this is the model they plan for the fall, they will not get the MAGA i and D crossovers to turnout... and without them Dem enthusiam will certainly flip at least 23 close districts in the house.
The ads being run, if they were going to pull in these I and D Maga voters it would have pulled them in decades ago, because literallly these ads could be running for any R for the last 15 years... It bad, bad messaging.. its not going to get the folks who aren’t already motivated to show up to show up for Saccone. Which means its only going ot motivate the core R vote... and while that may be enough to squeeze out this district in the end, its NOT going to be enough in many others.
The GOP and their PAC’s better wake up and stop pretending 2016 didn’t happen... your messaging is NOT going to keep you the house if this is your plan for November.