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To: Bob

Actually, they even use hypothetical variables to “predict” past temperatures and never get it right. They brag if they get closer to the actual than they have been, or, as my late boss, M. Stanton Evans put it, “so they’re getting better at predicting the past.”


16 posted on 02/08/2018 11:25:50 AM PST by Academiadotorg
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To: Academiadotorg
“so they’re getting better at predicting the past.”

That's called "testing" or "ground truth". Start a model with 1980 data and see how well its results compare with 2010 data. For example.

20 posted on 02/08/2018 11:37:20 AM PST by NorthMountain (... the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
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To: Academiadotorg

If the models they claim predict conditions for the next century were actually any good, they could be initialized to the conditions of 1918, and then run to construct a prediction of the period 1918-2018, and that prediction would match the actual historical record for that period.

If they could actually do that, they would be shouting it from the rooftops.

But they can’t do that, which means the “models” are utter bunk.


28 posted on 02/08/2018 12:40:42 PM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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