He would not be reelected in a free election this time imo, I think that there is this “boycott the election” talk is a barometer of that. Even though, that doesn’t prove it beyond all certainty, places that boycott elections usually have these mickey mouse elections like Venezuela or Kenya.
Russians always say that Navalny is unknown and I kind of ended up believing it until a Freeper made me aware that he got 27% of the votes in Moscow mayoral elections in 2013. I think if they would allow him to run he would at least give an embarrassment to Putin.