Posted on 01/07/2018 2:56:31 PM PST by janetjanet998
Summary: 280,000 areas of burned out areas of steep hills and mountains above populated areas as 2-6 inches of rain falls in a short time
When: Monday and Tuesday
Where: southern CA burn scar areas including the huge 440 sq mile Thomas burn scar in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties , also the Creek fire burn scar
Discussion: The largest fire in CA history is almost fully contained. A strong wet storm system will be moving into the area...with 1-3 inches likely around the coast and valleys . However south winds just above the surface will crash into the higher southern facing slopes and will lift enhancing rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour and 4-6 inches total..
Normally the vegetation would help absorb the rain and hold the top soil in place..however the fires destroyed most of the vegetation and roots at and just below the surface...plus all the ash will combine with the heavy rains to produce large mud flows flowing rapidly down the steep terrain...the top soil is very loose and the mud flows could also cause some of that to flow off
Flash flood watches are up and sandbags are being handed out
here is an article just last week about the danger
Potentially ‘Catastrophic’ Mudslides Predicted in the Wake of the Thomas Fire
Fire-Denuded Hillsides and Rain a Potent Mix for Flooding
....While touring the impact areas in recent days, Lewin said problems have already occurred. “We’re starting to see gravity rock fall,” he said. “One rock could close a road.”
County staff created an interactive map to show areas at risk of flooding. (This story will be updated as soon as the county releases the map.) The area now in danger is substantially larger than regions identified in the 100-year flood plan, noted County Supervisor Das Williams. “This will be a shock to most property owners not in the plan who have not bought flood insurance,” he said.
“Many, many people will be impacted,” Fayram added. The sheer size of the burn — 281,893 acres, the largest wildfire in California history — means there are many hillsides down which a large amount of water that could flow. “Water courses” could be completely filled with debris, Fayram said. “There is no way to stop that,” he said, adding it is “going to go somewhere.”
https://www.independent.com/news/2018/jan/03/potentially-catastrophic-mudslides-predicted/
Nothing new. I always remember California having mud slides from the first time we got TV.
It is so common the Bob Hope movie “How to Commit Marriage” (1969) ends with Bob and Jackie Gleason being buried up to their necks in a mud slide.
In the past, Some department in California would broadcast weed seeds into the areas hoping to stabilize the mud before it flowed. This also gave new impetus to more brush growing for the next burning season.
As sure as libs cry “Global Warming” during record low arctic temperatures, you will read articles about California mudslides in the winter following California fires. You can set your calendar by it. It’s more reliable than the swallows returning to Capistrano.
Another old-reliable article is “rising rents cause problems for renters.” The Mercury News ran that article on the front page today. They are slipping because today is January 7 during a Republican administration.
California weather is mostly marvelous. Just those pesky fires, floods and occasional earthquake.
In my little California town the local politicians allowed a complex of condos and expensive homes to be built in an area where any fool could see fires and mudslides were inevitable. Now they want to tax the rest of us instead of the developers to bail out the residents of that area after several such disasters. Money and greed always take priority over rational thought.
Too many big numbers being thrown about here to sort this out. What I do know is that CA, short for CACA, is in deep CACA!!!!!!!
Remember when the Hurricane went through Houston, and libs wisecracked that it was karma for them voting for Trump?
Hillary received 54% of the votes in Harris county. Maybe it was karma for them voting for the Hildebeast.
If you live on the last street in La Conchita, time to not be at home.
ANNOUNCING WINTER STORM EVACUATION ORDER AND WARNING BEGINNING TOMORROW FOR PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
Evacuations have been issued for areas below the Thomas, Whittier, Sherpa and Rey Fire Burn Areas beginning at 12 p.m. Monday, January 8, 2018 due to an approaching winter storm. A planned community meeting for 5 p.m. tomorrow is canceled.
This strong storm is expected to produce heavy rain, high winds and extremely dangerous flash flooding, mud and debris flows. Flash floods, mud and debris flows can happen with little or no warning. It is important that you understand the seriousness of the situation and follow the direction of authorities.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER has been issued for unincorporated parts of Santa Barbara County, Montecito, Summerland and Carpinteria including all areas NORTH of Hwy 192, EAST of Cold Springs Road, and WEST of Hwy 150/the County line. Also included in this Order are the areas along Tecolote Canyon, Eagle Canyon, Dos Pueblos Canyon, Gato Canyon, and the Whittier burn areas near Goleta. People in these areas should take action to leave no later than 12 p.m. Monday.
the have increased rain totals even more..not good
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS (WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION) TO 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN COASTAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
AFTER BEING IN THE NEWS PRIMARILY FOR FIRE WEATHER DURING THE PAST
MONTH...CALIFORNIA WILL SEE A RETURN OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP INTO A POWERHOUSE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSING
MID LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS PROJECTED TO DIP TO AT LEAST 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THIS IS A FAMILIAR STRENGTH
AND TRACK FOR LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNS INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY DOWN TO VENTURA COUNTY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOS ANGELES
BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME IS NOT OVERLY ROBUST...BUT IS PLENTY
SUFFICIENT...WITH PW OF 0.75 INCHES PROJECTED TO EXTEND INLAND TO
THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES OVER
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RAINFALL SHOULD PROVE TO BE VERY
EFFICIENT...WITH INTENSE LIFT OWING TO THE STILL DEEPENING
SYSTEM...AND INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
PER THE NAM / AND THE MODELS USUALLY UNDER-PREDICT CAPE IN THESE
SYSTEMS.
IN COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...WPC IS UPGRADING TO A HIGH RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES AND PART OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...ENCOMPASSING THE THOMAS
AND LA TUNA BURN SCARS. SIGNIFICANT SLIDES OF MUD...ROCK...AND
DEBRIS...APPEAR TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY GIVEN PREDICTED HOURLY RAIN
RATES AS GREAT AS 1.25 INCHES PER THE WRF-ARW. THE EVENT WILL
LIKELY STRADDLE THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY
2...WITH EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES...BUT
LOCALLY 7 TO 10 INCHES WHERE
iStock/Thinkstock(SANTA BARBARA, Calif.) — Officials have ordered thousands of people who were affected by recent wildfires in Southern California to evacuate as an upcoming winter storm poses a threat for mudslides and flash floods.
Mandatory evacuations were issued for about 7,000 people in mountainous areas affected by the Thomas, Whitter, Sherpa and Rey fires, according to the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management. Another 23,000 people were under evacuation warnings, officials said.
http://www.ktbb.com/post/?p=681657
Rainfall rates up to 1.33 inches per hour..huge mudslides....recuses ongoing...homes on fire from broken gas lines from mudflows ......
Things are really bad in Monticello .....numerous people swept away and missing.., k9’s call in., hard to get into town
Montecito I meant ,, bodies being found at the beach washed from upstream ...
Multiple fatalities now reported...Homes gone....many rescue calls still coming..some cut off.. Only can be reached from air
Death toll at 5 ....more injured....rescues still ongoing.,, it’s raining again
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