This woman’s views on the issues are clear. As she said in the house organ of the anti-American movement (The New York Times):
With only three months before the Obama administration leaves office, the United States and Iran need to work fast to strengthen the deals foundations and ensure that the improvement in relations that took place over the course of President Obamas tenure survives.
What else does anyone need to know about this woman? Even before you get to reading her article and finding its reference to the Iranian people expressing themselves in elections — that would be elections in which the candidates are chosen by the regime.
How Much Longer Will the Iran Deal Last Under Trump?
His hints that he may soon abandon the agreement could spell trouble for American credibility abroad.
ARIANE TABATABAI SEP 19, 2017
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/the-future-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-in-trumps-hands/540348/
President Trumps contempt for his predecessors chief foreign policy accomplishment, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the nuclear deal with Iran, is no secret. On the campaign trail, he routinely called it one of the worst and stupidest agreements in history, and he pledged to dismantle it. Now, in his first speech before the UN General Assembly, Trump has suggested that if he has his way, the United States wont continue to implement it.
During his speech, Trump described the deal as one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into and an embarrassment to the United States. And he pledged once again to take action on it, stating, And I dont think youve heard the last of it. Believe me. The president justified his position, arguing, We cannot abide by an agreement if it provides cover for the eventual construction of a nuclear program. Of course, the JCPOA doesnt provide cover for Irans nuclear program; its nuclear program is the very subject of deal. Nevertheless, the speech implied that the administration wont be sticking to the agreement much longer.
In mid-October, Trump must announce his administrations approach to the JCPOA. As part of the agreements implementation, the president must certify to Congress every 90 days that Tehran is (or isnt) complying with its obligations under the agreement. If the president communicates to Congress that Iran isnt complying, or simply fails to certify that it is complying, he kicks the ball over to Congress for new potential sanctions to be imposed on the country.
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But so far, theres no evidence to back Trumps stance on the JCPOA and to justify his potential decertification or failure to certify the agreement. The International Atomic Energy Agency, a UN body tasked with monitoring Irans nuclear program, has issued several reports on the status of the nuclear deals implementation to date, stating that Tehran is upholding its end of the bargain. The United Statess allies and negotiating partners, the European Union and its member states, have echoed this view. On the day of Trumps UN General Assembly speech, Vice President Mike Pence met with the EUs High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini. Mogherini chairs the joint commission that oversees the nuclear deals implementation. According to a press release put out by her staff, she told Pence that the agreement is working, and that Iran is delivering on its commitments, as certified so far seven times by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is therefore important that a full and effective implementation of the JCPOA, in all its parts and by all parties, continues.
Other European leaders have come forward in support of this position. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has become much more proactive in recent weeks, signaling to the United States that the agreement cant be repealed and replaced. Speaking shortly after Trump at the UN General Assembly, Macron warned the United States that itd lose confidence if it doesnt abide by its commitments; he called repealing the deal reckless in the absence of alternatives. If America decides to unilaterally withdraw from the JCPOA while its working, undermining multilateral agreements and empowering Iranian hardliners, itll have to go it alone.
And the prospect of Trump withdrawing America from the nuclear deal isnt just worrisome to Europeans.
Even critics of the nuclear agreement have expressed concerns about the possibility of a unilateral U.S. withdrawal without any clear evidence of Iranian noncompliance. For example, Senator Bob Corker, a vocal Iran hawk and opponent of the Obama administrations Iran policy, has said that the White House shouldnt tear it up. And even Trumps own cabinet, including its many Iran hawks, such as Secretary of Defense James Mattis, are opposed to withdrawing from the process. After all, this isnt just about the future of the nuclear deal or Iran, but about American credibility.
American withdrawal from the deal without a substantive reason will empower Iranian hardliners.
What does all this mean for the future of the JCPOA? Trumps UN speech makes it seem increasingly likely that he wont recertify Iranian compliance with the deal in October. Whether he will go so far as to all-out decertify it remains to be seen. But he may well kick the ball over to Congress, making it a key player in determining the agreements future.
For its part, Iran has signaled that itll continue to implement the agreement even if the United States withdraws, provided that its European partners stick to it. This has caused quite a stir in Iran. But Irans statements are designed to put the onus on the Europeans to preserve the future of the JCPOA regardless of the United States decision. As a result, it could ostensibly continue without America. But U.S. withdrawal wouldnt come without implications.
First, continued implementation of the nuclear agreement without the United States will serve to undermine the countrys leadership in this processand future ones, too. Itll send a signal to the international community that such major endeavors dont need America. And next time Washington tries to build a coalition and bring friends and foes to the table to tackle a security challenge, allies and adversaries alike will think twice before jumping on board. And sanctions, as a tool of foreign policy, will be weakened.
Second, without America on board, the international community will have a difficult time implementing the JCPOA. Indeed, investors and businesses will be more reluctant to engage Iran, making it more difficult for Iranians to collect the dividends of the dealand, therefore, less enthusiastic about implementing it.
Lastly, American withdrawal without a substantive reason will empower Iranian hardliners. For decades, the Islamic Republic has tried to sell an anti-American ideology to the Iranian people. But its death to America chants have largely failed to bring the Iranian people on board. Trump, however, has been helping the regime make that case, through his anti-Iran rhetoric in Riyadh, his failure to send a sympathetic message to Iranians after the Islamic States attack in Tehran in Juneand, now, through what seems to be an imminent withdrawal from the nuclear deal.