my oh my! - 23+ P/E are earnings? I have a bridge I would gladly sell you for some GOLD which appears to be moving up over a long term trend line
Trying to look in the past to determine what will happen in the future is just about the most ignorant way anyone could ever find to choose a plan of investment.
So 2000, 2007 and other market downtrends were very ignorant then, were they? Any way one should always look at many opinions when investing your own money
What you say has absolutely nothing to do with anything concerning the future of the Dow average the S&P average the NASDAQ average or any composite averages including commodities Etc.
I repeat, the stock market is 100% driven by earnings and earnings are 100% driven by consumers spending their money and buying stuff. Anything and I mean anything that interferes or causes consumers to spend less will cause the market to drop. Anything that causes consumers to increase their spending and buy more stuff will cause averages to go up by virtue of the corporations involved in these averages selling more of their stuff.
And because there is no possible way for anyone to look down the road and see how consumers will feel and how much they will spend any kind of an attempt to look at past averages and Cycles is completely 100% bogus. You might as well throw darts at a dartboard.