Short-Term Loss, Potential Long-Term Gain

Townhall.com ^ | Dec 14, 2017 | Jackie Gingrich Cushman

[Oshkalaboomboom]

While Democrats are crowing about their victory in the Alabama Senate race, now is the time for potential long-term gain for Republicans. The Alabama special election for senator was held this week, with Democratic candidate Doug Jones beating Republican Roy Moore.

In the Republican primary, Moore had beaten a more moderate candidate, Sen. Luther Strange, who had been appointed by then-Gov. Robert Bentley.

A few months later, Bentley pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of violating campaign finance law and resigned.

Moore, a far-right conservative, was plagued with allegations of sexual impropriety during the campaign. His flair for the theatrical was evident to the end as he rode to the polls Tuesday astride a horse, wearing a western hat and boots.

Yes, this is real life.

President Trump had initially backed Strange in the primary. When Strange lost, the president initially held back from wading into the special election. But he changed course a little over a week before the election, endorsing Moore.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to endorse Moore, even though the Republican lead in the Senate was slim -- and is now even slimmer. With Moore's loss in Alabama, McConnell will have only 51 Republicans in his camp versus 49 for the Democrats.

Trump's former chief campaign strategist, Steve Bannon, fully endorsed Moore, appearing in Alabama at rallies with him and speaking out for him in the national press. According to Elaina Johnson's Politico article, "Trump suffers 'Big Black Eye' in Alabama," Bannon pushed Trump to support Moore. "The two spoke Tuesday morning, and Bannon offered Trump assurances that Moore would prevail," Johnson wrote.

Clearly, Bannon was wrong, and Trump might think twice before taking his advice in the future.

While many (including Johnson above) will reflect on Trump's possible role in affecting the outcome, there are many lessons to be learned:

It matters who the nominee of a party is -- on both sides. On the morning after the election, Matt Drudge said that Strange would have won against Jones. We may never know for certain, but there is certainly a persuasive argument to be made. While Alabama is normally a reliable Republican-voting state, it has its limits -- Tuesday's vote showed that even a terrible Republican candidate can lose in Alabama.

Compare Moore's loss to what happened in the 2016 presidential election. While Trump did appeal to numerous voters, the Democratic primary promoted a flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton. Possibly former Vice President Joe Biden is not the only person who wakes up every day wondering if the outcome would have been different if he had been the Democrats' nominee. People vote both for candidates and against candidates.

African-Americans and all other minority groups are important and will be more important in future elections. According to the Atlantic article, "African American Voters Made Doug Jones a U.S. Senator in Alabama," by Vann Newkirk II, the turnout among blacks in Alabama made a difference. "By all accounts, black turnout exceeded expectations, perhaps even passing previous off-year results. Energy was not a problem."

Of these voters, "Fully 96 percent of African Americans supported Jones, similar to President Obama's 95 percent support among this group in 2012."

Neither party can count on race alone to determine how votes are cast. For example, there was a difference in the voting patterns of white voters.

"Jones fared much better than Obama among white voters, garnering 30 percent of their votes, twice the 15 percent who voted for Obama," according to Dan Balz in the Washington Post article, "In Alabama, no good outcomes for the Republican Party." "Jones made particularly large gains among white women and those with college degrees."

Four, women's votes matter and are up for grabs. According to Politico's article, "Exit polls: How Doug Jones pulled off his stunning win," by Steven Shepard, there was a huge gender break in "parents with children living at home. Among men with children under 18, Moore won by 15 points, 56 percent to 41 percent. But among mothers with children under 18, Jones won by a 34-point margin, 66 percent to 32 percent."

Tuesday's outcome could prove to be a short-term loss but a long-term gain for the Republican party if its leaders learn from Moore's failure that they have to reach out to all voters. That means they have to field candidates who can appeal to voters not only in the primary, but also in the general election.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

[Vendome]

As for the dems gain in a majority....pfttt!!!
They have 193 to our 239.
They would need to flip 46 seats and one of the 3 current vacancies.
Mathematically improbable.
It would be conceivable if the economy were in peril.
It’s not and won’t be for another 3 years, maybe.
That’s listening to a guy I know, who is the chief economist for a major, major investment firm.
He hates Trump...period but, his outlook and advice have the economy buzzing for a few years yet and even he hedges his long term outlook with the possibility that Trump will come through with tax reform and then he sees advantage USA for a variety of reasons.
So, middle finger to the prognosticators.
Oh, and about Alabama. They have blown a few hundred million this year to get one win.
That cuts into their funds for next year.
Bad news. DNC is literally so broke they can’t pay attention, have zero cash on hand and millions in debt.
REC meanwhile has a ton of loot stashed, nearly $100 million, as does NRSCC and others.
They have cash on hand and the best part? Zero debt.
Trump, for his part, has raised a gazillion bucks as well for 2020.
If you’re blue and don’t know where to go...putin on the ritz

[Nifster]

If I were Trump I would be using this loss to hammer Yertle and the rest of the swamp for interfering and wasting money on the primary and giving oppo research to the press to destroy the repub candidate

[Fresh Wind]

In the Republican primary, Moore had beaten a more moderate candidate, Sen. Luther Strange, who had been appointed by then-Gov. Robert Bentley.

A few months later, Bentley pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of violating campaign finance law and resigned.

That really understates the sleaze associated with Strange's appointment as Sessions' replacement.

As attorney general of Alabama, Strange sought to shut down the impeachment investigation of Bentley by the Alabama state legislature. In exchange, Bentley gave Strange the senatorial appointment that he wanted.

This was swamp politics at its finest. /s

[Yosemitest]

Don't for one second think that Judy Roy Moore lost that election !
Can't you see DemocRAT generated FAKE VOTES right in front of you ?

The information in the article Vote Fraud of Alabama from TUESDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2017, deserves saving.

...

There is absolutely not any way that Roy Moore lost the Alabama election for United States Senate. This was a matter again of vote rigging in population centers.

Simply look at the massive margins which Doug Jones had to pile up in concentrated population areas. To put it plainly, Alabama is a state of 6 out of 10 voters are Republicans, in remembering this 60 to 40 percent margin, look at these numbers in percentages for Doug Jones.



 Bullock 80.4%
Macon 88.1
Montgomery 72.1
Dallas 74.7
Perry 79
Wilcox 76.7
Hale 87.6
Sumter 80.9
Jefferson 69.6
Mobile 57.2
Madison 56.9


One only sees numbers like this in Pyongyang, Tehran and Peking. In a state of 60% Republicans who were highly motivated for Roy Moore, while Doug Jones was getting Hillary Clinton no shows at his events, and we are to believe that in Macon County 90% of the voters voted for Doug Jones?


County


	Jones	Moore	Write-Ins	Rpt.
Jefferson	121,169	49,910	3,121	85%
Madison	65,664	46,313	3,446	100
Mobile	57,715	41,398	1,300	71
Montgomery	48,186	17,705	743	100
Shelby	27,251	36,424	1,718	100
Baldwin	22,131	38,445	1,699	98
Tuscaloosa	30,858	22,064	1,007	100
Lee	19,810	14,017	672	100
Morgan	10,901	19,187	668	100
Etowah	10,518	15,693	617	100
Calhoun	11,705	14,567	399	100
Limestone	9,606	14,298	515	100
Houston	9,107	14,796	285	100
Lauderdale	9,908	12,775	382	100
St. Clair	6,203	15,876	459	100
Elmore	7,711	14,411	338	100
Cullman	4,156	16,602	324	100
Talladega	9,967	9,698	223	100
Marshall	5,134	13,828	449	100
Walker	4,317	11,909	259	100
Colbert	6,865	7,762	171	100
Autauga	5,606	8,752	253	100
Blount	2,405	11,621	180	100
Dallas	10,492	3,485	60	100
DeKalb	3,559	10,097	234	100
Coffee	3,715	8,052	202	100
Tallapoosa	4,590	7,171	148	100
Dale	3,842	6,988	136	100
Jackson	3,328	7,316	154	100
Russell	6,761	3,622	55	100
Chilton	2,298	7,555	132	100
Covington	2,102	6,825	88	100
Escambia	3,640	4,985	87	100
Lawrence	3,028	5,314	61	100
Clarke	4,346	3,984	43	100
Pike	3,989	4,154	97	100
Chambers	4,247	3,308	75	100
Marengo	4,495	2,804	62	100
Geneva	1,289	5,431	93	100
Marion	1,311	5,268	68	100
Monroe	3,244	3,276	40	100
Macon	5,780	758	20	100
Barbour	3,680	2,699	41	100
Pickens	3,057	2,961	46	100
Franklin	1,770	4,214	48	100
Butler	2,914	2,756	41	100
Winston	911	4,680	67	100
Cherokee	1,525	3,996	110	100
Hale	3,894	1,691	32	100
Bibb	1,567	3,599	66	100
Washington	1,799	3,320	48	100
Henry	1,896	3,014	38	100
Randolph	1,692	3,229	23	100
Lowndes	3,779	988	13	100
Fayette	1,142	3,491	50	100
Sumter	3,527	814	18	100
Wilcox	3,344	999	16	100
Choctaw	2,273	1,949	17	100
Conecuh	2,259	1,815	18	100
Perry	3,138	821	11	100
Greene	3,340	462	9	100
Crenshaw	1,320	2,347	56	100
Lamar	779	2,847	29	100
Clay	985	2,586	44	100
Bullock	2,712	656	7	100
Coosa	1,414	1,867	30	100
Cleburne	594	2,465	30	100



I did an inquiry of the matrix and the numbers which returned were a long the lines of a month ago in Roy Moore won by 62% and Doug Jones lost in 28% of the vote.

This is what the deep state looks like when it steals an election. FOX comes out with a bogus poll to repress voting, but is more to prepare the Republicans for defeat, as Matt Drudge bashes the Alabama Citizens over the head for months, for the fag vote mafia.

What took place is e vote fraud, write ins, vote fraud and busing in voters. At one point Doug Jones somehow got 60,000 votes in a few moments.

...

[happytrumper]

Worth consideration & follow-up.

[fortheDeclaration]

It was a perfect storm for the Democrats.

We will win seats in 2018 in the Senate.

And we will take back this seat in 2020.

[b4me]

How is it that they think they can come up with accurate numbers of how various groups voted when voting is supposedly private, pre or post voting poll takers only interview specific people and last I knew each person’s brain works independently of whether they are man, woman, old, young, college educated or not, etc???