Posted on 10/29/2017 10:57:08 PM PDT by Az Joe
If Astros lose Game 6 then Dodgers will be favored to win Game 7 and the Series.
Pitchers flame out anyway. The MLB has managed to keep tinkering to keep the game changing and interesting.
The Astros fought back to win last night’s game in the 10th inning. Wish them all the best. Dodgers Stadium is not easy to win. They must win game 6 to win it all.
Happy to hear that train roar.
I have no dog or cat in this fight myself. The Astros stunned the Dodgers bigtime.
The odd thing was that in the NFL earlier Sunday, Baltimore completely destroys Miami 40-0. Funny how the ball game later that night features a blowout score, eh? If the Astros win, they pass the “never having won a championship” mantle down to the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, and Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers franchises.
https://screengrabber.deadspin.com/l-a-fox-station-runs-postgame-news-promo-dodgers-win-1819962906
Fox LA station mistakenly runs “Dodgers Win!” graphic
As a lifelong Cardinals fan, I remember that series - even as a kid, that was a tough loss.
Though who’s the blonde sitting just to his left?
“Va-va voom, Ralphie boy!”
If Ed Norton can say it....
Can we have even one World Series thread without mentioning the Red Sox?
BTW, the Astros definitely deserve props. Dodgers, too. Two great teams.
Some of us are trapped here.
Exaaaactly, BenLurkin. That ump was a real jackass. I thought it was just me. Wait, that came out wrong. Let me rephrase.... GO DODGERS!!!
p.s. You guys shoulda' come to the live thread. It was awesomely fun, but real sad at the end. :)
Gay people don't watch baseball or sports in general.
When the Dodgers were up by 4, they had about a a 90 chance of winning the game. When the Astros were up by 3 going into the 9th, they had about a 95% chance of winning in regulation. Those percentages and the 62% are all about as meaningful as the 98% chance that Hillary had of winning the election.
Where did that 62% number come from? Somebody’s computer model? Vegas? Thin air. (There’s another expression for that one.)
Rough probabilities would be calculated as the Dodgers needing 2 favorable outcomes in 2 events (or trials). Assigning equal probabilities to either a favorable or unfavorable outcome one would reckon that the Dodgers have about a one in four chance right now:
1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 = 0.25 or 25%.
The remaining probability, 1 - .25 = 75% belongs to the Astros.
Sophisticated computer models may model starting pitching, lefty-righty match ups, home field advantages, etc., but the outcomes over the long run tend to run about 50-50 on each game.
By the way, a small pedantic note on the difference between odds and probabilities, from a frequentist perspective. Probabilities are the ratio of favorable outcomes, to all outcomes. What I cited above are probabilities. Odds are a betting proposition. Odds give the ratios of two sides of a wager. If you believe that the probability that the Astros will win is 75%, then fairs odds would be 3:1. A wager of $3.00 dollars on the Astros wins $1.00, a wager of $1.00 on the Dodgers wins $3.00. The person betting on the Astros would win $1.00 three out of four times, and lose $3.00 once out of four, and on average he would be even. That’s a fair bet. The person betting on the Dodgers is the counterparty to the above wagers, and would come even in the long run, also. In a fair bet, on average, no money changes hands.
Differences in the perception of the odds is what makes wagering popular, often those differences are driven by emotional rather than rational choices. “Differences of opinion is why there are horse races.” I like to wager, when I perceive that the odds are in my favor. Especially with Yankees fans.
I’d jump on the Astros at 19-31 odds (38-62), winning $19, three times and losing $31, once in four trials or:
($19 x 3 - $31) = $26/4 = $6.50
An expectation value of $6.50 on a $31 dollar wager.
though it was over 5 hours long...just a great, action packed,unreal baseball game...even the players had looks on their faces like “IS THIS REALLY HAPPENING?”....never seen a game like that ever..in such a pivotal game!!!...i kept flipping over to the Lions-Steelers game...BORINGGGGGGGGGGG
Ball seems obviously juiced for ratings to me and ended up taking away from the excitement. (apologize if someone brought it up. Only read thru 28 posts)
Best World Series!
The game was on too late for my family, but we spent the week watching Game 6 of the Dodgers-Yankees World Series, and last night we started watching Game 4 of the 1978 Dodgers-Phillies NLDS (Doug Rau loaded the bases with no outs, and struck out Luzinski and made it through the innning with no runs). It turns out it was a happier way to spend our family time, (Besides, no TV and no time to find a live stream of the Dodgers-Astros game)
Juiced balls according to J.V. (my tiger)
Did you forget the /s or are you just an angry person that shouldn't be allowed out of the house in a sane society? Just asking?
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