I have a theory. I believe that NSA/CIA/FBI/Dept. of Justice or some mix of that group had the Trump Dossier before it was delivered to them by McCain. Perhaps long before.
Am I crazy?
or
Am I brilliant?
I’m hoping someone out there has a real Dossier Timeline.
It’s almost certain FBI had the dossier before McCain ‘delivered’ it:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/11/trump-russia-report-opposition-research-john-mccain
...By July, the counter-intelligence contractor...delivered his reports...[and] a set to former colleagues in the FBI...
...In mid-November, the documents took another route into Washington... McCain arranged a one-on-one meeting with Comey, with no aides present, and handed them over...
I don’t think there is any definite timeline because nobody in the government has actually disclosed what they knew about it and when. We do know a few things though.
McCain apparently had received the dossier but not yet turned it over to the FBI when he discussed it with Sir Andrew Wood at a conference in Canada “shortly after the US election”, so November 2016 at the earliest. (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article160622854.html)
We know that the FBI got a FISA warrant against Carter Page over suspicion of working with Russian agents in the SUMMER of 2016: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbi-obtained-fisa-warrant-to-monitor-former-trump-adviser-carter-page/2017/04/11/620192ea-1e0e-11e7-ad74-3a742a6e93a7_story.html?utm_term=.8d2b879a8686
We also know that Paul Manafort was the subject of a FISA warrant, but apparently in 2 separate periods, one from 2014 through May 2016, and one only starting AFTER the election:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/five-questions-about-the-manafort-investigation/540270/
So, if the FISA warrant on Carter Page used the dossier as part of the cause for the warrant, then the government had the dossier before McCain gave it to the FBI. If only Manafort’s post-election surveillance was done under pretense of the dossier, then it is possible that they didn’t have it until McCain passed it to them.