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To: jjsheridan5

“I just don’t see why people see him as crazy (at least in terms of what he is doing in terms of nuclear weapons), suicidal, and irrational.”

Well, in a general sense it certainly doesn’t seem like a sign of ‘rationality’ to kill your brother or to blow individual people away with artillery. The way he treats his own people is also not evidence of a rational person. I understand your point about his strategy being somewhat grounded in his own regional reality, and also concede that even madmen can act ‘rationally’ in the context of military strategy, etc. I just get the impression that he has delusions of grandeur - and that is a dangerous mindset.

“And I also think it is a very dangerous thing to underestimate, or wrongly evaluate, a potential adversary.”

Agree, entirely.


52 posted on 10/23/2017 12:24:23 PM PDT by neverevergiveup
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To: neverevergiveup
Well, in a general sense it certainly doesn’t seem like a sign of ‘rationality’ to kill your brother or to blow individual people away with artillery.

It isn't. But the problem is when people work themselves into a lather, and run the risk of making a terrible mistake, because they assume that the malevolence he exhibits domestically is driving his current actions internationally. If he is doing this as a means of increasing his leverage (possibly domestically, as well as with other countries), then whatever strategy we adopt should reflect that intent. Let me put it this way. On the one hand, there is the ideal strategy assuming that he is simply being suicidal or irrational. On the other hand, there is the ideal strategy assuming that he is doing this to increase leverage. Maybe the two strategies are the same, but I sincerely doubt it. And choosing the wrong strategy, because we are looking at NK incorrectly, has the potential to be disastrous.

If he is doing this to increase leverage, then the worst thing we could do is force him into a corner. If he is doing this to increase leverage, then it stands to reason that he would be responsive to things like sanctions (assuming we could successfully implement those), since his objectives are material. On the other hand, if he is just irrational, suicidal, and/or "crazy", then sanctions would probably have no effect, and our only real option now is to destroy him at any cost. (I am not saying that sanctions is necessarily the best approach in the former case, or military response is best in the latter -- I am just using them as an example of how the two assumptions can lead to wildly different approaches).
59 posted on 10/23/2017 12:47:20 PM PDT by jjsheridan5
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