Hurricane Maria Live Thread

NHC/NOAA ^ | 9/16/2017 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Jose has been hanging around, waiting for attention in the wake of Hurricane Irma. Newcomer Maria threatens to impact the Caribbean Islands already devastated by Hurricane Irma, and brushed by Jose. Hurricane Jose threatens to brush or impact New England. Lee appears to be a fish storm at this time.

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Jose	Maria
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Public Advisories	Public Advisories
Forecast Discussions	Forecast Discussions

[jeffers]

Compared to Post 466, it looks like significant transfer of energy from inner eyewall to outer is well underway:

[dfwgator]

Seems to me, as bad as it was on St. Croix, it could have been much worse.

[jeffers]

Hurricane Hunter captures.

Northeast Outer Eyewall:


Northeast Inner Eyewall:


Southwest Inner Eyewall:


Southwest Outer Eyewall:


Peak velocities on this pass significantly higher in the outer eyewall than in the inner, on both the Left and Right Front Quadrants.

Cross Section along Hurricane Hunter's approximate path, looking SE, NE to left, where he began the pass, SW to right:


Convection heigth and intensity correlate well with measured windspeeds.

[jeffers]

Correction...peak winds at flight levels higher in outer eyewall than inner, but surface winds still stronger in the NE inner eyewall. SW reversed.

[jeffers]

Hurricane Hunter's making another pass, and either a wobble or slight recurve in course:



Orange line was the net course as of an hour ago, the white line is the net course over the last 2.5 hours.

[Paul R.]

Thx, I was away for a bit, gotta get some sleep, now. Much business to take care of for my Dad, tomorrow.

[jeffers]

Rest is a weapon.
;-)

[jeffers]

Cross section along latest Hurricane Hunter pass, from SE (left), towards the NW and Puerto Rico, (right):



Flight level wind at red arrow, (trailing outer eyewall), 105 kts, surface wind at red arrow, 120 kts.
Flight level wind at green arrow, (leading outer eyewall), 122 kts, surface wind at green arrow, 111 kts.
Unmarked inner leading eyewall, flight level wind 104 kts, surface 91.

[jeffers]

Sorry for the large image, but you can't read placenames if I shrink it. Landfall projection, SE of Humacao, Puerto Rico, pretty close to 0600 EDT at current track and speed.

San Juan square in the right front eyewall on this track.

[SE Mom]

Thanks for the images. Pressure still dropping after replacement.

Reading Twitter accounts of some storm chasers - things are starting to really fly outside. ABC reporter getting water under his hotel door- on the 6th floor.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

Thanks for your thoughts & prayers.

My dad moved to a hotel in Old San Juan at 7:30pm yesterday, which is surrounded by tall windows and his room is in the interior of the hotel with small windows. He lives on the 17th floor less than 200 feet from the Atlantic Ocean, so his building told them all to seek shelter, which he did.

Mom is at her apt., about 2 miles inland, up a hill, in Miramar near the Condado area (tourist area) in the second floor. She does not have panels on her windows and she’s facing south. She is also surrounded by buildings & concrete.

If they have phone or text service, they will contact us.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

** surrounded by TALL BUILDINGS NOT TALL WINDOWS!

[Karl Spooner]

Radar at 3:55 CDT. Doesn't look good. Data from weather underground PR stations stopped.

===================================================

[janetjanet998]

eyewall repayment cycle almost complete but I don’t think its a CAT 5 anymore..maybe 150 MPH CAT 4

PR got “lucky” with the timing

now it would normally start to restrengthen agin after the cycle but of course PR is in the way and it has some decent but not huge MTNS on the west side up to 4500 feet

[janetjanet998]

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.
Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria
remains an extremely dangerous hurricane. Some weakening is
likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico. Later in the forecast
period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further
weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane for the next 5 days. The official intensity forecast is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at
about 9 kt. The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this
general heading over the next couple of days. This track will bring
the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern
Dominican Republic over the next day or so. After that time a
break in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose,
should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by
the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the
track forecast through that time. There is some increase in the
spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF
prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with
all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at
the end of the period. The official forecast is very close to the
latest FSU Superensemble track.

[novemberslady]

bkmk

[jeffers]

Sixth floor could be windblown rain, but since you specified ABC...that pretty much HAS to be surge...

(eyeroll)

Weather Channel guy just explained that “Hurricanes do not have brakes.”

91-100 mph measured gusts in PR.

[jeffers]

I’m getting steady Level 2 radar feeds every four minutes from TJUA, current,as of two minutes ago.

[Karl Spooner]

And here is your San Juan Wednesday weather forecast.

.

[jeffers]

Here's something interesting....all these TVS and mesos popped up just as the outer edge of the eyewall made landfall:



Friction from land affecting transition speeds at edges of feeder bands, and therefore creating shear?