Amazing how their accuracy improves in the hour before landfall !!!
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Yeah, amazing how that is.
I truly believe there are variables hurricane-specialist meteorologists haven’t even discovered yet OR have politically/ideologically ignored to there forecasting detriment. If they follow the same failed patterns in their “predictive” modeling yet expect different results, there is a word for that.
I don’t think there are really any variables that the meteorologists haven’t discovered.
However, they are just that - variables.
The whole system is in a constant state of change and flux and they are trying to forecast future events using only current data.
And as the variables change, often unexpectedly, then the whole situation can shift with no warning. It’s not possible to forecast all the things that *MIGHT* happen, or not.
They do the best they can with the information they have and the equipment they have.
The problem is less their uncertainty and more the unrealistic expectations people have of what weather forecasting is capable of.