Why is it improbable? It is until it happens, as they say. This hurricane has shown a turn to the north for days from dozens of models that are run multiple times a day - so that amounts to many hundreds of model runs showing the same thing. The likelihood that they are all wrong is small, very small.
The only question was when the storm turns north, and it is a bit more westerly than first thought. Not bad considering the storm is the size of France and hurricane force winds (at least gusts) will touch almost the entire state.
The Carolinas are loving it. All the beach areas booked.
The reporting has been excellent. It’s the buoy system that needs to be privatized. Not having buoys at American shoals and sombrero being down forever is killing us info wise.