No one knows for sure, but a lot of dedicated people are doing their level best to try and forecast Irma for millions of people potentially in harms way. And have done a pretty good job so far from what I have seen. There is too much crossover of AGW criticism against hurricane forecasting. Dipsh**s on the left try to equate the two. Professional forecasters only try to figure out the next 120 hours.
Their tracking has been very good. Just on the SW of their outliers so far. But they had the track pegged very good. Just now we are seeing the northern areas of Irma getting peeled off by the cold front and sent NE. So we should be seeing that influence affecting Irma now. Cold front out in front of trough.