Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II

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[justa-hairyape]

You picked a bad time to stop drinking.

[The 10th man]

Valium for everyone!

[SE Mom]

Thanks for update! My nerves are a tad raggedy:) Job has kept me in middle of plan/prep and it’s been intense. I notice a different tone than in prep for Matthew last year. There’s a sense this is real, it’s happening and our entire state will be affected.

Bastardi is good and often correct. We’ll see, neighbor.

[snippy_about_it]

Bkmrk

[SE Mom]

P.S. Does Bastardi think it’s still picking up steam over the straits and go back to cat5? He mentioned going under 900mb too..

[luvie]

HERE is a short video of the traffic heading out of coastal areas of FL. Tonight.

It's only going to get worse!

[janetjanet998]

winds now 165 officially

[janetjanet998]

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two with a decrease in
forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late
Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to
move westward away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward
the southeastern Bahamas overnight. The core of the hurricane will
then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the
next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

[blam]

"I was just on I-95 north in the Jax area. Heavy traffic going only 45-60 MPH. Seems the big deluge of evacuees has started."

"Greatest Evacuation In History" - 650,000 Ordered To Leave Florida

"There was no gas and it's gridlock. People are stranded on the sides of the highway," she said.
"It's 92 degrees out and little kids are out on the grass on the side of the road. No one can help them."

Where are 650,000 people going? For days, maybe weeks/months?

Won't Irma just follow all these evacuees north? Where will it catch-up?

And then, here comes Jose?

Will this require National Guard resources from other states.?

[janetjanet998]

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017

Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is developing a concentric
eyewall structure, and the plane reported an elliptical eye. The
highest flight-level and SFMR winds measured by the aircraft were
146 kt and 139 kt, respectively, so the initial intensity is lowered
slightly to 145 kt. Irma’s central pressure has fallen a bit
despite the slight reduction in winds, counterbalanced by an
expansion of the hurricane-force wind field as observed by the
plane.

If Irma has developed concentric eyewalls, then some additional
gradual weakening or fluctuations in intensity are possible over
the next day or two, despite a seemingly favorable atmospheric and
oceanic environment. The intensity models depict a very gradual
decrease in Irma’s maximum winds up until a possible landfall in
Florida, but the hurricane is nonetheless expected to still be at
or near category 4 strength at that time. After landfall, a fairly
quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction
and increased shear, although Irma’s large wind field is likely to
still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area.

Irma continues to move west-northwestward at 290/14 kt, steered by
the western extent of the subtropical ridge. Irma should maintain
this trajectory but slow down during the next 36 hours, and then
turn north-northwestward toward a break in the ridge by 72 hours.
Although there was a westward shift in the 18Z GFS, this model’s
new track puts it very close to the previous NHC forecast. As
such, no major changes to the NHC track were required on this
forecast through 72 hours, and the projected path lies between the
GFS and ECMWF, closest to the TVCN consensus and HCCA. After 72
hours, the models are showing a more pronounced turn toward the
northwest when Irma interacts with a shortwave diving southeastward
from the Central Plains, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly at the end of the forecast period.

[FamiliarFace]

Thanks for the update.

[SE Mom]

http://www.flgov.com/2017/09/07/governor-scott-closes-all-k-12-public-schools-state-colleges-state-universities-and-state-offices-to-begin-preparations-immediately/

Governor Scott orders ALL schools, state colleges, universities and offices to close Friday.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Yes. He is not firm on that but feels it could strenthen. As for the 11 pm update on WFTV...The track has shifted FURTHER WEST. That means Lake county will get 77 mph winds and the storm will be a CAT 2 north of Orlando.

[SE Mom]

Well, we may get another wobble east but we’re looking at Seminole, Orange and Volusia getting whacked. It’s just so BIG.

Can’t imagine Lake County with those winds.

[numberonepal]

Hopefully some fuel tanker trucks too.

Tankers are getting police escorts.

[dirtboy]

Eyewall replacement cycle. Temporary hiccup.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Warnings and Watches:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward
around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the
Florida Keys.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Venice.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island.

SUMMARY OF 11:00 PM Advisory...
----------------------------------------------
Location...21.3N 72.4W
About 55 MI...ENE of Great Inagua Island
About 585 MI...ESE of Miami FL
Maximum Sustained Winds...165 MPH
Present Movement...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...920 MB...27.17 Inches


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

The VA IN JAX IS OPEN TOMORROW AND SAT AM...PHARMACY ALSO

[bgill]

Fiscal year end doesn’t mean anything more than taking last year’s check register out of your checkbook and inserting a new one.

[fatima]

Bump.