I don’t see how filling one single appellate seat is that big a deal. Yes, Posner was a unique jurist because of his prolific writings. He had drifted leftward on same sex marriage, abortion, and economic regulation (post financial crisis). The Democrats will stall the hell out of whoever Trump names.
No, they haven’t. Quite the contrary, they have “blue slipped” all his circuit court judges. He set a RECORD with 15 either confirmed or blue-slipped already (meaning confirmation guaranteed) and he has one more with one blue slip in, so he could end up with 16 (JFK only had 14).
Throw in the Posner replacement and Gorsuch? It’s a sea change.