Hurricane Irma Public Advisory

NHC ^ | Sep 4, 2017

[Ray76]

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

[Cementjungle]

I'm in Delray Beach (between Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach), so I'm getting pretty concerned.

I have a new whole-house generator with about 96 hours of fuel (longer if I ration myself). I have a fair amount of bottled water left over from Matthew last year, and will fill containers with more. Already pulled together insurance papers, passports, some cash etc. to put in my large metal ammo box.. along with expensive camera bodies/lenses, medications, etc.

Most of my window/doors are impact, and I already know where the shutters are for the ones that aren't... so if things still look dire toward the end of the week I'll deal with those, patio furniture, etc.

Still not sure of the status of my 2 friends from South Africa, who are currently in Jamaica and scheduled to fly back here (Ft. Lauderdale) on the 8'th and out to Las Vegas on the 9'th. They might get stuck in Jamaica, or if they make it here they might get stuck here.

[caww]

yes..it’s concerning when we have loved ones in it’s potential path....I hope it gets moved out to sea...time will tell.

[aquila48]

I sure hope it doesn’t end up slamming Texas. They desperately need a breather.

[caww]

I read a cool hint..take zip lock bags and fill a third or two thirds full with water for your freezer....poke them into the empty spaces as it will keep food longer if without electricity.....plus an extra supply of drinking water.

[Veto!]

Key West relative better get on the road now. There’s only one road out and it gets jammed. Grab the kids and the pets and charter a plane.

My long-dead ex grew up in Key West, was there for the 1935 hurricane. In the ‘80s, when he took me there, he showed me railroad tracks embedded in sand perhaps a hundred yards from the water that had run along the coast before the storm. Also described bodies hanging from tree limbs.

Forward this to your cousin: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1935-hurricane-story.html

[trisham]

I forgot my sister and her family in Largo, Florida. :(

I can’t believe it.

[HonkyTonkMan]

The storm of '35 was awful based on accounts I have read. There simply is no place to go in the Keys. I have friends that rode out a hurricane (Andrew?) in a fish/ice freezer on a commercial dock. They were lucky to emerge unscathed.

I am amazed anyone lived down there before Flaglers RR and the highway system.... definitely an isolated, tough lifestyle in those islands.

[Cementjungle]

I read a cool hint..take zip lock bags and fill a third or two thirds full with water for your freezer....poke them into the empty spaces as it will keep food longer if without electricity.....plus an extra supply of drinking water.

Yep... will do that. Will also fill my ice chest with ice too before the worst of things so I can put the more frequently used things (milk etc.) in there rather than having to open the fridge as much.

[Veto!]

I would have LOVED living there before the rr, traveling by boat to get there. It’s absolutely gorgeous, the quality of light is astonishing. I’ve driven down the keys many times, and as you cross the bridge into Key West, the vegetation changes, becomes more tropical. My ex grew up there, had such wonderful stories to tell, but he was there after the railroads.

ENJOY:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ChADh1zt5I

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

We have family members in Bradenton, Lakeland and Orlando.

I have an ex- in Orlando...hope it gets the full brunt of the storm... :)

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

...take zip lock bags and fill a third or two thirds full with water for your freezer....poke them into the empty spaces as it will keep food longer if without electricity.....plus an extra supply of drinking water.

When we travel we use gallon or half gallon cartons, filled with our special natural spring water and freeze them. Use them to keep food etc chilled in chests. And as they thaw, we have cold, delicious drinking water.

We would do the same for any emergency, especially one like Irma where we could plan ahead.

Right now we have 60 gallons of that good, fresh natural spring water available here. We don't let it run out.

[Ray76]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050237
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

Irma's satellite presentation remains quite impressive with a
well-defined eye and a symmetrical CDO containing very cold cloud
tops. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the current
intensity is about 120 kt. Since the hurricane will be moving
through an environment of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level
atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean heat content, additional
intensification is likely. The only expected impediment to
strengthening should be eyewall replacement cycles, which are
difficult to predict. The official intensity forecast is very
close to the latest model consensus, ICON. Although the consensus
of the guidance shows slight weakening in the 96- to 120-hour time
frame, Irma is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane throughout
the 5-day forecast period.

Center fixes from the aircraft indicate a westward motion of about
270/11 kt. Irma should turn toward the west-northwest tomorrow
while it is steered by the flow to the south of a mid-level ridge.
A broad trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern U.S. in
72 hours and then lift northeastward leaving a weakness in the ridge
to north of the hurricane. This should cause a slowing of the
forward speed near the end of the forecast period. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the
model consensus.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands a
dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts. Hurricane warnings are in effect
for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed
to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first
arrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.

2. Irma is also expected affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this
week. Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and
tropical-storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early
Wednesday.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/050237.shtml

[Ray76]

excerpt

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

 

The center of Hurricane Irma at 05/1200 UTC is near 16.6N 56.4W, or about 280 nm to the E of the Leeward Islands. Irma is moving W, or about 270 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong is within 120 nm radius of the center. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N to 20N between 44W and 53W, and from 10N to 12N between 51W and 55W. Warnings and watches have been issued for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. (emphasis added)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/051105_MIATWDAT.shtml?

---

             Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Category    Sustained Winds      Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
--------    ---------------      --------------------------------------
1              74-95 mph         Very dangerous winds will produce some 
               64-82 kt          damage: Well-constructed frame homes could 
                                 have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding 
                                 and gutters. Large branches of trees will 
                                 snap and shallowly rooted trees may be 
                                 toppled. Extensive damage to power lines 
                                 and poles likely will result in power 
                                 outages that could last a few to several 
                                 days.
               
2             96-110 mph         Extremely dangerous winds will cause 
              83-95 kt           extensive damage: Well-constructed frame 
                                 homes could sustain major roof and siding 
                                 damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will 
                                 be snapped or uprooted and block numerous 
                                 roads. Near-total power loss is expected 
                                 with outages that could last from several 
                                 days to weeks. 

3            111-129 mph         Devastating damage will occur: Well-built 
(major)       96-112 kt          framed homes may incur major damage or 
                                 removal of roof decking and gable ends. 
                                 Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, 
                                 blocking numerous roads. Electricity and 
                                 water will be unavailable for several days 
                                 to weeks after the storm passes. 

4            130-156 mph         Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built 
(major)      113-136 kt          framed homes can sustain severe damage with 
                                 loss of most of the roof structure and/or 
                                 some exterior walls. Most trees will be 
                                 snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. 
                                 Fallen trees and power poles will isolate 
                                 residential areas. Power outages will last 
                                 weeks to possibly months. Most of the area 
                                 will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

5            157 mph or higher   Catastrophic damage will occur: A high 
(major)      137 kt or higher    percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, 
                                 with total roof failure and wall collapse. 
                                 Fallen trees and power poles will isolate 
                                 residential areas. Power outages will last 
                                 for weeks to possibly months. Most of the 
                                 area will be uninhabitable for weeks or 
                                 months.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Sustained wind means one minute duration

[Ray76]

...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...

Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma
is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

excerpt of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051159.shtml

[Ray76]

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml

[Ray76]

Tropical Weather Discussion

150 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 kt with gusts to 195 kt

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/051750_MIATWDAT.shtml?

.

Cat 5 - 157 mph (137 kt ) or higher.

Irma - 184 mph, gusts to 224 mph.

https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_windconvert

[Ray76]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

The center of Hurricane Irma at 06/0000 UTC is near 17.2N 60.5W,
or about 75 NM to the E of Antigua. Irma is moving W, or about
280 degrees, at 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is down to 916 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 kt
with gusts to 195 kt. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category
Five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and is
the strongest hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin outside
of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Irma has a well defined
eye about 20-25 NM in diameter surrounded by numerous strong
convection within 120 nm of the center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/052348_MIATWDAT.shtml?

[Ray76]

[Ray76]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060854
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Irma continues as a Category 5 hurricane this morning, having
passed over Barbuda a few hours ago. Earlier data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds near 155 kt
and that the central pressure had fallen to 914 mb inside the 25 n
mi wide eye. There has been little change in the satellite
appearance of the hurricane since that time, so the initial
intensity remains 160 kt.

The initial motion is 285/14. Irma is currently being steered by
the subtropical ridge to the north, and a general west-
northwestward motion on the south side of the ridge is expected
during the next 48-72 h. This portion of the forecast track is
little changed and is in best overall agreement with the ECMWF
model. The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to
large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models
related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the
southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Irma is likely to remain in a light shear, warm water, environment
for the next 3 to 4 days. The intensity guidance continues to show
slow weakening during this time, and this part of the intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory, with Irma
remaining a strong hurricane during this time. The intensity
forecast is lowered at 120 h due to the forecast landfall, and even
if Irma stays over water it is likely to encounter some vertical
shear at that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, today. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, as well as the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos, with hurricane watches for portions of Haiti and
the central Bahamas. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm
surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through
Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.9N 62.6W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.6W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.6N 70.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060854.shtml

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Key West relative better get on the road now.

Key West relative is posting on facebook about being interviewed on CNN HLN. His 15 seconds of fame. This is the older brother, I hope his kid brother loads his wife and kid in his pick up and heads for Georgia. Sheesh.