Daniel Pipes: Look for Rivalry Between Ankara and Tehran to Intensify

Newsmax ^ | Daniel Pipes

[RoosterRedux]

News that Iran's and Turkey's governments reached an accord on Idlib, a Syrian town now the focus of American interests, brings relations between two of the largest and most influential states in the Mideast momentarily out of the shadows.

Their rivalry goes back a half-millennium, included eleven wars, and now remains, in the words of the Washington Institute's Soner Cagaptay, the region's "oldest power game." What does the recent accord signify and how will their competition influence the region's future?

Iranian and Turkish parallels are noteworthy. Both countries have populations of 80 million. (Egypt, the region's third large country, has 96 million.) Both boast ancient civilizations, long imperial histories, tensions with Russia, and a successful avoidance of European colonialism. In modern times, each came under the rule of a ruthless modernizer after World War I, followed more recently by an even more repressive Islamist.

The current leaders, Iran's Ali Khamene'i and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, enjoy near-absolute power and both feverishly try to hide this reality under a large and noisy apparatus of elections, parliaments, cabinets, laws, and NGOs. Both aspire to lead the entire Muslim community, perhaps someday claiming to be caliph. In an era of muted anti-Zionism from Arab states, Tehran and Ankara now lead the charge, with the Islamic Republic of Iran loudly denying the Holocaust and the Republic of Turkey comparing Israelis to Nazis.

In several ways, Iranians lead Turks, but the latter are catching up. Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in 1979 and Erdoğan in 2002. Iran has long enjoyed massive oil and gas reserves but Turkey recently built an impressive economic base. Tehran deploys forces abroad, dominating four Arab capitals, while Ankara still fights domestic opponents, especially Gülenists and Kurds. Both governments despise the West but Iran's is openly hostile...

[Pearls Before Swine]

Shia: “You bastards! You threw the 11th imam down the well!”

Sunni: “And he ain’t coming back up!”

[Truth29]

Good, hopefully they will destroy each other.

[DIRTYSECRET]

Common border. No need for a Kurdistan buffer if you can take it out of Syria, Iraq and Iran.

[silverleaf]

Little to no mention of the Kurds, Assad, Damascus, Israel, Iraq or Russia
Not much mention of NATO and its future influence on and usefulness to Erdogan
Nor of how Irans nuclear program is going to affect its relations in the region

Lots missing in this analysis

[Zuse]

There are other possibilities based on shifting loyalties.
Turkey and Persia both hate Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Iran imams both have Sufi influence.
They could get together to wipe out SA and other Gulf States.
We will see a revived Ottoman Empire that will be a formidable force of End Times power.

[shalom aleichem]

This is true, and sweet

[dfwgator]

[Wuli]

I hate to tell he well respected Mr Pipes, but geopolitics always can make for strange bedfellows, even if very, very, very long term rivalries are put on the back burner for more immediate concerns.

Just lask week Erdogan was in Iran signing a military cooperation agreement with Iran, where billions in military trade will be exchanged.

What do Iran and Turkey have in common at the moment? Growing moves beyond Iraq for more Kurdish independence.

Iran and Turkey WILL BE joining forces to stem Kurish ambitions beyond Iraq and trying to keep it contained as no more than a region within the political borders of Iraq, and not as an independent state formerly part of Iraq. They will both independently and together go as far as they can to achieve those goals; goals Turkey and Iran share.