Figuring 4 percent of the vote will go to parties that do not make the 5 percent threshold for representation in the Bundestag, Merkel’s bifurcated party + the Free Democrats, at 48 percent, may have a majority of the seats. Considering that the Alternative Party is at 10 percent, this brings the right-of-center parties combined to 58 percent. This is a Ronald Reagan-like landslide.
On the other hand, things look touch-and-go in Norway and New Zealand, whose elections are also coming up.
Most likely outcome?
A continuation of the Grand Coalition. Neither the CDU/CSU or the SPD will partner with the AfD and their preferred choice of potential coalition partners is likely to fall short of the 5% threshold for entering the Bundestag.
We’ll see if that’s case in the German federal election to be held in September.