In a Confrontation Over Doklam, China Will Likely Be the Eventual Loser

Wire ^ | 14/08/2017 | ONKAR MARWAH

[TigerLikesRooster]

In a Confrontation Over Doklam, China Will Likely Be the Eventual Loser

BY ONKAR MARWAH ON 14/08/2017

Any hostilities will be short and non-conclusive, and will puncture the image of itself that China has built.

On June 16, it became public information that Indian troops had entered the Doklam region near the Chumbi Valley tri-junction area wedged between Bhutan, India and Tibet/China, and stopped a Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) construction crew...

/snip

Hereafter, the assumptions encompass both countries:

• Any outbreak of hostilities would be a localised and sharp, short war. Neither side would wish to prolong or enlarge it.
• It would be a largely ‘long-distance-ordnance and short-distance-projectile’ war by land or air. Troops would be used sparingly, only where skirmishing is unavoidable, and mainly to hold ground. Special Operations Forces could be used by both sides for disruption or quick gains. Armour could be employed by both in the Ladakh area and the Tawang area of Arunachal Pradesh.
• It could be initiated in Doklam and simultaneously in other disputed areas, e.g. Ladakh, Uttarakhand or Arunachal Pradesh.
• Cyber or electronic measures and countermeasures as well as drones (armed and for surveillance) could be used to befuddle the opponent.
• Satellite imagery for monitoring the opponent’s movements and capability would be available to both sides.
• Airpower could be employed to damage rearward supply lines – but used to interdict forward formations only to blunt an unacceptable ground advance of the adversary.
• The navies would be on alert and ready to intervene, but not deployed for warfare unless the hostilities spread in time and space. This is unlikely.
• Pakistan will not intervene on China’s side.
• No state will intervene on India’s side.

/snip

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[TigerLikesRooster]

Trade war looms between India-China after 93 Chinese products attract anti-dumping duties: Chinese media

Urging the Chinese companies to think about the risks of investment in India, the news report warned India to start preparing to face the possible consequences for its 'ill-considered action'.

[Reno89519]

I think this is over optimistic. India will lose. Both likely to lose. Maybe together knock the their populations down a billion or more people.

[TigerLikesRooster]

I think India can turn it into a stalemate. I don't think that it would escalate into a full-scale war. If it does, it will be costly for both. It will set back Chinese ambition, though. India has an political advantage if the game is for “not losing.”

[JudgemAll]

Maybe the Sino-Putinist can explain this imperialism of China...

[Mr Radical]

If Onkar Marwah is the same Onkar Marwah who works/worked for the Indian Civil Service then his conclusions come as no surprise.

But as long as we stay out of it, then it needn’t bother us. The more issues China has to worry about while NK simmers, not to mention its other imperialist ambitions, seems a bonus to me.

[FreedomPoster]

This would be a good time for the Uyghurs to get feisty.

[ThanhPhero]

China is seeking to nibble off bits and pieces to eventually be in a position to cut off the narrow neck that connects India to the Northwest Territories and to overrun Bhutan. China considers Bhutan and Sikkim to be part of the Tibet package and thus a legitimate possession of China’s. Cutting off and then overrunning the Northwest Territories is a strategic interest of China’s. China could then with a short push through the Burma-Bangla Desh border attain some Indian Ocean frontage

[ThanhPhero]

I suspect China is using the Indian gambit as part of its negotiation with Trump over Norkea.

[Little Pig]

This would be a better time for Tibetan separatists to get feisty. Let China contemplate trying to maintain a combat supply line through potentially hostile territory while simultaneously having to suppress the separatists.

[FreedomPoster]

Them too!

I want the PLA and political leadership to have as many distractions and headaches as possible.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Tibetans need inspiration from their past: King Gesar

[Flintlock]

Chuckle, chuckle..................

ALL WARS are just supposed to be ‘short’ and ‘sweet’.

...............just say’in............

[TigerLikesRooster]

It is a tough place to wage a war where winter comes early.