Posted on 07/16/2017 1:37:03 AM PDT by AdmSmith
Russia’s economic development ministry says that the country’s GDP growth will be approximately half of one percent lower each year because of projected declines in the number of workers in Russia in the coming decades, a decline that the ministry says must be fought by increasing immigration.
But any immigration sufficient to cover that decline in the size of the working-age cohort will not only increasingly consist of people who are culturally, linguistically and religiously dissimilar to the current residents of Russia and accelerate the shifting balance between Orthodox and Muslims in its population.
Russia could avoid this problem by dramatically increasing labor productivity, something the government and most experts do not think is possible, or by driving down mortality rates among working age Russian males, a step that would be very expensive, or attracting back into the workforce pensioners, a step with unpredictable political consequences.
Immigration in the future will add almost exclusively to the Muslim side of the balance. It is already the case that the share of Muslims in Russia is far higher than the Kremlin admits especially if one includes the 12 to 15 million gastarbeiters who are disproportionately from Central Asia and Azerbaijan and Muslim rather than Orthodox.
(That pattern was less extreme in the 1990s because many ethnic Russians did return from the non-Russian countries, but now, despite Putin’s call for repatriation of compatriots, the number of Russian or at least Orthodox immigrants is extremely small in comparison to the number of Muslims.)
And that means, if the Russian government is to avoid presiding over economic growth far lower or even negative than it wants, Moscow will have to take in more immigrant workers and these workers will leave it with a population very much less Russian and Orthodox Christian than the Kremlin will like and stability would appear to require.
Within 20 Years, Moscow will have 35 Million Residents and Almost a Third of Them will be Muslims, Russian Experts Say
Pryanikov said that one of the most important changes will be the composition of the city’s population. Because two-thirds of gastarbeiters will settle in Moscow, the city will have as many as five million Central Asian residents by 2035. Together with Muslims already there, they will boost the Islamic share of the city’s population to 25-30 percent.
As a result, Pryanikov continued, “we shall see then their growing role in the life of the city: the appearance eof Muslim districts, life according to shariat law, new mosques [there are only six officially registered ones now], and medrassahs as well.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.se/2017/07/within-20-years-moscow-will-have-35.html
There are alternatives.
They could offer to take Egypt’s Copts and all the other remaining Christians of the Middle East, to start.
I’m not sure they can offer them such a good deal, Russia is not that prosperous. But its worth a try.
And I don’t see why they cant improve productivity.
Russia has as Many as Five Million Homeless, Not the 64,000 Rosstat Reports
But if one takes a longer period, then it turns out that “the level of poverty in Russia has fundamentally increased,” something the authorities don’t want to admit but must focus on if the situation of those at the bottom of Russian society is to have any chance of improvement.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.se/2017/07/russia-has-as-many-as-five-million.html
Maybe we can ship them some of our deportees.
How about “have kids”?
According to the article: The ministry believes that Russia can make up for this demographic decline by boosting labor productivity, but Russian experts and politicians say that this is likely impossible. They are also skeptical about reducing mortality rates or attracting pensioners back to the workforce (links to two articles in Russian: www.segodnia.ru/content/189343 and www.regions.ru/news/2607034/).
“The end of Russia as we know it.”
Won’t happen. Russia is not controlled by the ‘Suicide Entity’ that Western Europe (and Democrat Party) is controlled by...they simply won’t allow themselves to be re-populated, especially by Muslims, as they know exactly what that means for ethic Russians.
They’ll either go Japan’s way, which is to allow their population to shrink, along with their economy, but to NOT dilute their population...or they’ll have the church step things up there a bit and strongly encourage more Russians to have children, which I’ve read is already happening.
The big difference, again, is that people who love Russia run Russia...they are not like Western Europe, or the Democrats.
“They could offer to take Egypt’s Copts and all the other remaining Christians of the Middle East, to start...I’m not sure they can offer them such a good deal, Russia is not that prosperous. But its worth a try.”
Compared to the hell-holes that many Christians (particularly in the Middle East) are living in...I’d say Russia is much better than what they have now.
This demographic problem is why they are becoming much more pro-life and anti-gay. They also need to adjust their social security system to be more rewarding to having kids. Russia is actually doing better than other developed countries birthrate wise. Their problem is that after the cold war and collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a period of very low birth rates. Those people who were not born should have been entering the work force now.
“Russia has as Many as Five Million Homeless”
Almost as many as Los Angeles (been there lately?). At to Russia as a whole, not sure, but I do know a lot of people who have traveled to Moscow there and even lived there, and they cannot even name a bad neighborhood there, much less ‘homeless’ encampments, like in Los Angeles. Maybe if you count the ‘ethnic areas’ in the south, you’d find a lot of homeless, but that is not what most of the world thinks of when they think of Russia.
I agree - they seem to be past the worst or it, and now recovering, but like you allude to, it’s a long road to recovery when you have to deal with a birthrate valley (i.e., you need lots of kids, fast, from each of the relatively few young women left). They at least have a government that believes in the need to maintain their population, rather than to exterminate it (like Western Europe, or the Democrats).
I wouldn’t be surprised if this blog were some anti-Putin organ funded by Soros or his bunch.
Yes, Russia and Western Europe are trying to solve the same problem in two different ways.
Russia: poverty threshold is $10 x 365 = $3,650 per year.
US: poverty threshold is $12,082 http://www.irp.wisc.edu/faqs/faq1.htm
I’ve reached the point where I don’t think Europe is trying to solve anything. They’re now controlled by a ‘Suicide Entity’ that simply wants to extinguish them from the planet...nothing else explains why they’re letting fighting aged men, by the millions, into their countries - from cultures that simply want every European dead. Nothing else.
Paul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia, currently prepares daily reports on developments in that region for his blog, Window on Eurasia. Paul has worked at the CIA, the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, he served as Special Assistant for Soviet Nationalities and Special Advisor for Soviet Nationality and Baltic Affairs at the US Department of State, he was the director of research and director of communications and technology at Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
He has taught at the University of Maryland, George Washington University, Georgetown University, the Institute of World Politics, the University of Tartu, and Audentes University in Tallinn. Trained at Miami University and the University of Chicago, he is the editor of seven volumes on ethnic and religious issues in. He currently lives in Staunton, Virginia.
Some pretty decent Russian people live in my neighborhood. Some of our Slavic families have 5 or more children. (I say “Slavic” because I can’t distinguish Russian, Ukrainian, or Polish when they are speaking it.) My daughter told me a little girl she met at the playground had a Spanish-speaking mother, but when we went over to introduce ourselves officially, it turned out they were Polish (and spoke decent English).
I was just commenting on ‘the homeless’ which don’t seem to exist, at least in Moscow...and that is not necessarily related to poverty. Having a ‘homeless’ population is a choice made by politicians...since the vast majority of them are there due to reasons that cannot be cured with money. Russia does something to address them - maybe puts them in shelters/institutions of some type, or sends them out of Moscow - while left-wing politicians in the US get some type of satisfaction by leaving them out on display, on our sidewalks.
As to poverty, if half of the population were really that poor, they’d be living at some of the lowest standards in the world. As I note, maybe this is true, but from what people tell me, no place in Moscow looks like the slums of India, or the shanties of Rio...and neither does St. Petersburg. Perhaps other areas in Russia, maybe?
Regarding Paul Goble’s history.
Thanks, I figured as much, sounds like he’s spent his life in the Deep State, where they’ve been wrong about everything regarding Russia since Reagan was president I figured as much.
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