The Republicans should hold his seat in the midterms (when he first retired, the GOP put up a weak retread candidate in 2008), but this run is baffling, since he comes in as the underdog.
Of course, 2008 turned out to be a bad year and he also emerged damaged from a brutal primary, all of which didn’t help his Senate candidacy. I expect 2018 to be a better year. Since the GOP will have a heavyweight running for Martinez’s seat, that may scare away any challengers. The problem for the Dems is that there’s a free-for-all on their side, and Pearce may be betting that a brutal internecine battle will see the Dem emerge as damaged as he was going up against Tom Udall.
I give him about a 45% shot at winning. Getting that extra 5% will be tough, but not impossible.
Pearce might have had a shot against Udall in 2014 when Udall underperformed against a longshot challenger, but Udall’s big margin in 08 seemed to preclude any chance that he could be vulnerable.
Ed Tinsley’s performance in 08 was shockingly bad: 44 percent to the Democrat Harry Teague’s 56, an even bigger margin of victory for the Democrat than in the Dem-leaning open NM-1 just north of the district. GOP primary voters should pick a stronger horse this time.