Currently, there are 52 Senators who identify as Republicans. Let's say that Trump nominates a staunch conservative, especially one, like Napolitano, who is a high profile originalist. It is a given that the 47 Democrats, plus Bernie Sanders, will oppose the nomination. However, unlike the replacement of Scalia with Gorsuch, a replacement will change the ideological balance of the Supreme Court. If Ginsburg or Kennedy retire, voluntarily or not, a Napolitano type relationship will change the ideology rightward. In this case, will the likes of Murkowski, McCain, Graham, etc., get a bout of "conscience" and oppose the nomination? If the enemy can pull off just three RINOs, the nomination will fail.
People like McCain and Graham have always said that Presidents deserve their nominees. That's why Graham tended to vote Yes on Obama nominees.
I would hope that they are consistent in their words and deeds and support the President's right to nominate over preserving a status quo on the Court.
-PJ
Alexander, Corker, Flake, Gardner, Graham, Hatch, Heller, Hoeven, Murkowsky, McCain, Rubio, Burr, Tillis, Portman, McConnell, Thune, Cornyn, Cochran, Isackson, Blunt, Johnson, Gardner, Toomey, Capito, Fischer, Collins, Wicker, Sasse are all Democrats in R jerseys.
I’d say their chances are good.