This seems like a well-reasoned and realistic article. It is a complex, multi-player game over there, and the stakes are high.
It is a tough argument to make, that Kurds should risk their lives for American policy objectives - so the rewards, and the reliability of those rewards, must be worth it.
It is pretty clear though, that without American support it is back to the mountains for the Kurds in a year or two. Turkey will see to that before Assad or Iran could, but the others likely will not be far behind. The only options for protection from Turkey are the US or submission to Assad (with Russian and Iranian involvement).
There is the clear potential for a new regional alignment though, that could possibly bring the Kurds a perfect storm of American security guarantees, Saudi development funds, and Israeli business know-how - which is driven primarily from the common desire to contain Iran. Having control of the key terrain blocking the “Shia Crescent” will give them enduring geo-strategic leverage, making them very difficult to abandon.
But the risks are high, no matter which course they take.
Agree.
Feedback right now is on Efrin. I punched all the usual buttons again today. Not sure yet whether I hit the right ones.
Still trying to get through to my least favorite senator. But I am going to try. Surly they know what is happening. (He is on the intelligence committee, isn’t that a frightening thought? headshake)