Secession happened before Lincoln and the northern Republicans took office and control of Congress. Try again.
Of course not. But I think there is a good possibility that there would have been no split.
What would have prevented it?
A horse-drawn or steam-powered cotton-picker isn't much of a stretch, given developments in agricultural innovation between 1860 and 1880 or -90.
The first successful mechanical cotton harvester wasn't introduced until the 1930's.
Wrong. The Republicans gained a majority in the House in 1858 and the Senate in 1860. The election results were known in November 1860. South Carolina seceded in December 1860. You think the South couldn't see the dominoes falling?
And do you think that the post electoral plans of the Republicans were not well known, given that they had run for election on them??
"What would have prevented it?"
No Republican majority, no secession. It really "is" that simple.
"The first successful mechanical cotton harvester wasn't introduced until the 1930's."
Being from the South, I am well aware of the history of mechanical cotton picking. Without the huge expenditure of money and resources sucked up by the war, technological development would almost certainly been accelerated.
I took a bus trip to Little Rock Arkansas one time. We traveled through the mid section where, for the first time, I saw blacks picking cotton the old fashioned way, bent over, long sacks behind. I was shocked as I thought I was back in the 1850s! The year was 1968.
West Texas cotton fields were using mechanical pickers at that time.