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Here is the scenario I felt matched the facts the best.

Reports surface in Spring 2016 that the FBI has completed its investigation into Clinton's misuse of her private email server while SoS.

Public pressure builds for the results of the investigation to be announced.

Lynch announces she will follow the recommendation of the FBI. That declaration (from a strictly PR viewpoint) takes the political appointee out of the loop and throws the weight of the decision on to the nonpartisan (!!) Director of the FBI, Mr. Comey.

Public pressure builds for the results of the investigation to be announced.

Lynch has her chat with Bill on the tarmac at Phoenix International.

Public pressure builds for the results of the investigation to be announced.

Clinton needs this problem to go away before the DNC convention in July.

Party pressure builds for the results of the investigation to be announced that does not damage Hillary so badly she cannot recover and get elected President.

Comey has his "extremely reckless behavior but prosecution not recommended" news conference. He also promises Congress at subsequent hearings to reopen the investigation if new information about the emails comes to light.

Clinton enemies seize on the "extremely reckless" part of the press conference while Clinton supporters focus on "no indictment recommended" part.

Although bruised by the "extremely reckless" criticism, Clinton can now go forward to claim the nomination paving the way to her inevitable election.

MSM press attention shifts to full throated support for Clinton. Talk about the emails dies down.

In early October, the NYPD as part of an underage sexting investigation, seizes the laptop of Anthony Weiner, the husband of Clinton's close aide, Huma Abelin. In addition to incriminating sexting evidence, they find many thousands of Clinton's emails.

Word is leaked to the press.

In late October, Comey, caught in his earlier promise to reopen the investigation if necessary, is compelled to notify the Congress (and the press through leaked documents) that the FBI has reopened the case to see if the new evidence will change his earlier recommendation.

Although the agency somehow manages to got through thousands of emails and determine they cause no change in its earlier findings and recommendation, the damage is done. It reawakens the controversy in the minds of an already less than unenthusiastic public.

The fake Russian memo - if it existed at the time and if it was not, in fact, cooked up by the FBI itself - is simply cover for Comey to justify direct announcement of the findings. Findings that were already precooked by Democratic insiders who knew there had to be very significant (but not fatal) criticism of Clinton's behavior to counterbalance the no prosecution recommendation.