[SeekAndFind]

“What jumps out is that there’s no discernible pattern among previous peaks. The stock market has experienced bear markets with high valuations and low valuations, high bond yields and low bond yields, high dividend yields and low dividend yields, high inflation and low inflation,” he writes.

[abb]

“Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” - Will Rogers

[plain talk]

Even the most respected and famed investors and market pundits can’t claim to know when it’s time to get out—or for that matter into—the market, no matter how savvy they may be on investing.

So true. So true. The first step however is to set aside 10-20% of your income to savings. Then dollar cost invest into a mix of stock and bond mutual funds over decades and pretty much leave it alone.

[Wuli]

A giant half truth.

The question is not if we are in a bear market, but that is the data type their argument and graph looks at.

The question is are we nearing, on a progressive leading to, a market peak - BEFORE a bear market.

And by all historical measures, by P/E ratios, we have entered into a “heading to a peak” period. Yes, it could build for some time longer, and reach even past the high tech and dot com bubbles’ peaks. But - who knows - it, the peak will be reached, the bubble burst, and values will drop to point where the average P/E returns to more hsitorically average P/E ratios.

[Lakeshark]

Bookmark

[wastoute]

It is purely emotional but my feeling is that TPTB have not yet been able yet to effectively damage the Trump presidency and so a “correction” is around the corner. If Trump should start to “take scalps” and punish these folks, then the time to get in has come.

[rightwingcrazy]

Those who have the power to influence the market have the ability to predict it. I’m not one of them.

[taildragger]

Not investment advice, saturate before using and do not plug in radio and put it on the ledge while taking a bath...;-)

As someone who may or may not attended the 5 day pre-exam class back in another life on passing your Registered Rep / Series 7 License, the old salt teaching it let out a gem that forever stuck a cord. However, I have not looked at the evidence since the 1999-2000 bust. His gem was Small Cap Growth highs signal the end of a Bull Market and conversely when they recover, you are coming out of Bear. 2008 was not a typical crash, that was political / legislative / "Moral Hazard" imposed on us by the fartknockers on Capital Hill. However, 1999-2000 does anyone remember "QQQ" on a tear? Your gut told you making 80% a year just wasn't sustainable.

With the markets more efficient via Indexing by ETF and Mutual Funds, I'd have to spend fair amount of time to see if this old salts axiom still holds true, going back to 99'-00' and finding the style box winners for all those years and the dips and upswings in relationship to SCG performance....