In the long run you’re correct, except I wonder how many of them will see delayed advancement & opportunity to satisfy diversity requirements.
I think they will shine among the many hothouse flowers and bosses will rely on they because they are used to getting the job done. That recognition leads to opportunity.
Diversity requirements may be on the way out since in essence they are discriminatory and in a case based on merits would be overturned. The bigotry of low expectations hurts the minorities worst of all in any case.