Who here is old enough to remember when “peak oil” was actually a thing? No fibbin’ now.....
I do. Shell used to have (and may still, for all I know) an annual conference called the Shell-Faculty Forum. In the mid 70’s, Shell geologists put on a peak oil presentation at the conference, marshaling the geological (and historical) evidence that hydrocarbons were a finite resource and the decline in the production curve was about to start. (I seem to recall that one or more of the excellent John McPhee books on geology carried much the same message)
Then, a guest speaker, an economist, spoke with the message that such would not be the case because higher prices would lead to substitution, discovery of hitherto unknown deposits/extraction techniques and even a re-definition of what was considered “exploitable hydrocarbons”. Suffice to say, he was roundly criticized for such foolish, unscientific challenge to “settled science”.
I suspect that economist retired a very rich man. Shell, on the other hand, BOUGHT a whole lot of reserves (e.g., Belridge, etc.).